Wish Plan 2253 Plan

Maricopa, AZ 85138

$258,040F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,078 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 328 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,929/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,675
• Tax + insurance: −$532
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $-683/mo
• Annual: $-8,199/yr
• Cap rate: 3.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.17%
• DSCR: 0.59
• 1% rule: 0.60%
• Cash to close: $89,429

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $258k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-683 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (14.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (25.2% below list).
• It's been on market 328 days — a 12% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $193k (25.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#28 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Maricopa Unified School District (4441) (town): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #128 of 249 in AZ (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Santa Cruz Elementary School (math 27% / reading 34%, grade F, #536 of 1,109 statewide, top 49%, 764 students, 59% FRL); Desert Wind Middle School (math 14% / reading 26%, grade F, #127 of 218 statewide, top 60%, 817 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 858 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 328 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.