Wish Plan 2253 Plan · Maricopa, AZ 85138

$258,040

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,078 sqft · SingleFamily · 327 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new single-story home offers ample space to live and grow. Two bedrooms and a luxurious owner's suite are tucked away at the back of the home. The kitchen, living and dining areas share an inviting open-concept layout with convenient access to a covered porch for outdoor entertainment and leisure.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Single story home
• Open concept layout

Tags

• SINGLE STORY HOME
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• COVERED PORCH

🏗️ New construction. The $258,040 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $319,388.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $258k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-683 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (14.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (25.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (25.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#28 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Maricopa Unified School District (4441) (town): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #128 of 249 in AZ (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Santa Cruz Elementary School (math 27% / reading 34%, grade F, #536 of 1,109 statewide, top 49%, 764 students, 59% FRL); Desert Wind Middle School (math 14% / reading 26%, grade F, #127 of 218 statewide, top 60%, 817 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 862 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 327 days — a 12% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $192,904 (25.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 327 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.17%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 13.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $319,388
• List price: $258,040
• Delta: -19.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
36075 W Charity Pl	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,109 (+3%)	0mo	$259,740	$234	87
36056 W Charity Pl	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,109 (+3%)	1mo	$245,000	$221	86
36065 W Charity Pl	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,109 (+3%)	2mo	$240,000	$216	85
36107 W Maddaloni Ave	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,210 (+12%)	1mo	$260,000	$215	79
36225 W Mediterranean Way	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,177 (+9%)	2mo	$285,190	$242	78
17500 N Toledo Ave	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,177 (+9%)	2mo	$286,000	$243	73
17653 N Del Mar Ave	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,177 (+9%)	1mo	$277,540	$236	73
17428 N Del Mar Ave	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	969 (-10%)	1mo	$259,990	$268	73
36205 W Mediterranean Way	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	969 (-10%)	1mo	$274,690	$283	72
36066 W Charity Pl	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,210 (+12%)	1mo	$266,390	$220	70
36023 W Maddaloni Ave	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,210 (+12%)	1mo	$259,740	$215	69
36795 W Mondragone Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,192 (+11%)	1mo	$258,000	$216	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.89% appreciation · 1.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-68,256
• Equity at exit: $78,822

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-97,025
• Equity at exit: $84,247

Cash invested: $89,429 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85138

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 862
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,929 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,675
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$399 /mo · $4,791/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $-683

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,794

Max offer price $220,517

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-463	-5% $-573	+0% $-683	+5% $-794	+10% $-904
Rent	-10% $-836	-5% $-759	+0% $-683	+5% $-607	+10% $-531
Rate	-1.0pp $-522	-0.5pp $-602	base $-683	+0.5pp $-766	+1.0pp $-850

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,847
• Closing costs: $9,582
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
36355 W Mediterranean Way Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1411	$2,050	$1.45	0d	1	0.04mi
36355 W Mediterranean Way Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1411	$2,050	$1.45	3d	1	0.04mi
17589 N Del Mar Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1177	$1,895	$1.61	46d	1	0.19mi
36605 W Mondragone Ln Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1170	$1,595	$1.36	12d	1	0.19mi
36837 W Mediterranean Way Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,595	$1.25	0d	1	0.32mi
36837 W Mediterranean Way Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,695	$1.33	45d	1	0.32mi
37078 W Mondragone Ln Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,600	$1.14	0d	1	0.48mi
37128 W Mondragone Ln Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,450	$1.03	45d	1	0.51mi
35480 W San Capistrano Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,685	$1.20	0d	1	0.87mi
35448 W Santa Barbara Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1327	$1,600	$1.21	13d	1	0.97mi
19270 N Costa Verdez Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,610	$1.32	45d	1	1.22mi
19270 N Costa Verdez Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,645	$1.35	0d	1	1.22mi
36635 W Honeycutt Rd Maricopa, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	972	$2,259	$2.32	0d	83	1.36mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $258,040 Active 327 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $258,040 Active 324 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $258,040 Active 323 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $257,040 Active 322 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $257,040 Active 321 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $257,040 Active 319 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $257,040 Active 318 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $257,040 Active 315 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $257,040 Active 314 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $257,040 Active 313 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $257,040 Active 310 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $257,040 Active 309 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $257,040 Active 308 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $255,040 Active 307 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $255,040 Active 306 DOM
16. 2026-05-04
    price $254,040 303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    This new single-story home offers ample space to live and grow. Two bedrooms and a luxurious owner's suite are tucked away at the back of the home. The kitchen, living and dining areas share an inviting open-concept layout with convenient access to a covered porch for outdoor entertainment and leisure.

17. 2026-03-17
    price $253,040 303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    This new single-story home offers ample space to live and grow. Two bedrooms and a luxurious owner's suite are tucked away at the back of the home. The kitchen, living and dining areas share an inviting open-concept layout with convenient access to a covered porch for outdoor entertainment and leisure.

18. 2026-01-13
    price $252,790 303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    This new single-story home offers ample space to live and grow. Two bedrooms and a luxurious owner's suite are tucked away at the back of the home. The kitchen, living and dining areas share an inviting open-concept layout with convenient access to a covered porch for outdoor entertainment and leisure.

19. 2025-11-11
    price $252,290 303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    This new single-story home offers ample space to live and grow. Two bedrooms and a luxurious owner's suite are tucked away at the back of the home. The kitchen, living and dining areas share an inviting open-concept layout with convenient access to a covered porch for outdoor entertainment and leisure.

20. 2025-07-29
    listed $251,990 Active 303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    This new single-story home offers ample space to live and grow. Two bedrooms and a luxurious owner's suite are tucked away at the back of the home. The kitchen, living and dining areas share an inviting open-concept layout with convenient access to a covered porch for outdoor entertainment and leisure.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,148
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,891
• − Property taxes: −$4,791
• − Insurance: −$1,597
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,852
• − Management: −$1,852
• − Depreciation: −$9,291
• Taxable loss: −$14,125
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,390
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,809/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Maricopa Unified School District (4441)
• NCES district ID: 0404720
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $63,725
• Composite: 22.92/100
• National rank: #7993
• State rank: #128 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Maricopa

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #28
• US rank: #5943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Maricopa, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 76,044
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 55,260
• Household income: $95,867
• Rent vs Own: 17.7% rent · 82.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 432.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 17% Black 13% Native American 3% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.89%
• Current HPI: 258.1461
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.78%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+0.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $254,040 Zillow
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $253,040 Zillow
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $252,790 Zillow
• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $252,290 Zillow
• 2025-07-29 Listed $251,990 Zillow