911 N Center St

Willow Springs, MO 65793

$165,500D

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,446 sqft · Built 1957 · Other · Active · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,274/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$868
• Tax + insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $14/mo
• Annual: $163/yr
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.35%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $46,340

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $166k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $14 ($163/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (23.0% below list).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $127k (23.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#386 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Willow Springs R-IV (rural): math 34% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #140 of 324 in MO (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willow Springs Elem. (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #537 of 1,115 statewide, top 53%, 525 students, 72% FRL); Willow Springs Middle (math 34% / reading 51%, grade D-, #140 of 391 statewide, top 38%, 369 students, 66% FRL); Willow Springs High (math 32% / reading 62%, grade D-, #155 of 521 statewide, top 32%, 387 students, 52% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 53 units permitted in Howell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Howell County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.7% in Willow Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.