564 Pelican Cove Way SE

Southport, NC 28461

$239,900D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,787 sqft · Built 2026 · Townhouse · Active · 192 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,333/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax + insurance: −$400
• HOA: −$265
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
• Net cashflow: $-80/mo
• Annual: $-960/yr
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.43%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $67,172

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $240k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-80 ($-960/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (4.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (2.8% below list).
• It's been on market 192 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $211k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#35 in NC, #3,475 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Southport Elementary (math 59% / reading 56%, grade C+, #245 of 1,410 statewide, top 18%, 403 students, 99% FRL); South Brunswick Middle (math 41% / reading 49%, grade D, #160 of 475 statewide, top 35%, 572 students, 100% FRL); South Brunswick High (math 62% / reading 57%, grade C+, #216 of 535 statewide, top 43%, 1,172 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1299 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.4% in Southport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 192 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.