564 Pelican Cove Way SE · Southport, NC 28461

$274,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,787 sqft · Townhouse · 149 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition Garage $154/sqft · 44% below area Est $487k · 44% under $265/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Bedford I offers a thoughtfully designed single-level layout with the flexibility of an optional loft, creating the perfect balance of comfort and versatility. The open concept living area seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living room, providing an ideal space for everyday living and entertaining. A private owner's suite is tucked toward the rear of the home, featuring a spacious layout, walk-in closet, and well-appointed bath for a true retreat. Two additional bedrooms and a full bath are positioned separately, offering privacy for guests or family.

Key facts

• Upstairs loft
• Walk-in closet
• Rear porch

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• PRIVATE OWNER'S SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• REAR PORCH
• UPSTAIRS LOFT
• MODERN COASTAL LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $275k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-321 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (16.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (15.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.7% in Southport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#35 in NC, #3,475 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Southport Elementary (math 59% / reading 56%, grade C+, #245 of 1,410 statewide, top 18%, 403 students, 99% FRL); South Brunswick Middle (math 41% / reading 49%, grade D, #160 of 475 statewide, top 35%, 572 students, 100% FRL); South Brunswick High (math 62% / reading 57%, grade C+, #216 of 535 statewide, top 43%, 1,172 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1204 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $228,442 (16.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.01%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $486,594
• List price: $274,900
• Delta: -40.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
778 Pelican Cove Way SE #303	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,741 (-3%)	3mo	$337,530	$194	86
774 Pelican Cove Way SE #302	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,583 (-11%)	0mo	$307,900	$195	69
3125 Weather Side Dr SE #152	0.08mi	4/2.5	2,117 (+18%)	3mo	$359,900	$170	67
767 Pelican Cove Way SE #213	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,583 (-11%)	3mo	$339,000	$214	65
3129 Weather Side Dr SE #153	0.08mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,498 (-16%)	2mo	$322,400	$215	63
3121 Weather Side Dr SE #151	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-16%)	0mo	$299,900	$200	62
3332 Island Lakes Dr	1.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,774 (-1%)	1mo	$478,603	$270	54
3404 Lake Club Cir	0.92mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,946 (+9%)	7mo	$504,068	$259	36
3316 Island Lakes Dr	1.01mi	4/3.0	2,129 (+19%)	6mo	$507,500	$238	35
3400 Lake Club Cir	0.91mi	4/3.0	2,129 (+19%)	7mo	$503,929	$237	34
3391 Lake Club Cir	0.87mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,136 (+20%)	3mo	$548,686	$257	33
3741 Canary Ln	0.78mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,087 (+17%)	2mo	$564,000	$270	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-69,986
• Equity at exit: $40,988

10-year hold

• IRR: -39.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.39×
• Total profit: $-106,822
• Equity at exit: $23,768

Cash invested: $76,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 2 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $263,785 ($148/sqft)
• Median days on market: 141 d
• This list price: 100% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +84.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 28461

• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 1204
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,334 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$344 /mo · $4,124/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$265
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
• Net cashflow: $-321

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,740

Max offer price $228,442

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-131	-5% $-226	+0% $-321	+5% $-416	+10% $-511
Rent	-10% $-505	-5% $-413	+0% $-321	+5% $-229	+10% $-137
Rate	-1.0pp $-183	-0.5pp $-251	base $-321	+0.5pp $-392	+1.0pp $-465

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,725
• Closing costs: $8,247
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3025 Headwater Dr SE Southport, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$1,925	$1.89	0d	64	0.26mi
1045 Woodsia Way Southport, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1041	$2,834	$2.72	0d	17	0.95mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: List price $291,840Address: 564 Pelican Cove Way SE, Southport, NC 28461Status: Active
• HOA & community: Association fee of $265

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: Spec new-construction plan: Bedford INT

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area approximately 1,787

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $274,900 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $274,900 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $274,900 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $274,900 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   pricedays on market $274,900 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   pricedays on market $274,510 Active 144 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $289,900 Active 143 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $289,900 Active 142 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $289,900 Active 140 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $289,900 Active 139 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $289,900 Active 138 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $289,900 Active 137 DOM
13. 2026-09-06
    days on market $289,900 Active 131 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $289,900 Active 130 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $289,900 Active 129 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $289,900 Active 126 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $289,900 Active 125 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $289,900 Active 124 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $289,900 Active 123 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    pricedays on market $289,900 Active 122 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $293,840 Active 120 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $293,840 Active 119 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $293,840 Active 118 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $293,840 Active 117 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $293,840 Active 116 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $293,840 Active 115 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $293,840 Active 114 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $293,840 Active 113 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $293,840 Active 112 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $293,840 Active 111 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $293,840 Active 110 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $293,840 Active 109 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $293,840 Active 108 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $293,840 Active 107 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $293,840 Active 106 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $293,840 Active 105 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $293,840 Active 104 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $293,840 Active 103 DOM
39. 2026-08-07
    days on market $293,840 Active 102 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $293,840 Active 101 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $293,840 Active 100 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $293,840 Active 99 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $293,840 Active 98 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $293,840 Active 95 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $293,840 Active 93 DOM
46. 2026-07-27
    days on market $293,840 Active 91 DOM
47. 2026-07-25
    days on market $293,840 Active 89 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $293,840 Active 88 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $293,840 Active 87 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $293,840 Active 86 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,006
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,399
• − Property taxes: −$4,124
• − Insurance: −$1,374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,240
• − Management: −$2,240
• − HOA: −$3,180
• − Depreciation: −$7,997
• Taxable loss: −$8,549
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,052
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,801/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This townhouse is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a thoughtfully designed layout with the flexibility of an optional loft, making it ideal for both resale and rental. The highest-ROI updates would be painting the exterior and interior, landscaping improvements, new flooring in bathrooms, and new kitchen appliances.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale New flooring in bathrooms — Improves appearance and functionality ↑
• Resale New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and appeal ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Southport Elementary C+ NC #245/1,410 Nat'l #8,415/41,679 Middle South Brunswick Middle D NC #160/475 Nat'l #4,622/14,009 High South Brunswick High C+ NC #216/535 Nat'l #3,588/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,494
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4011
• State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Southport

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #35
• US rank: #3475

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brunswick County · 152,111 people
• City population: 23,762
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• Population (ZIP): 23,762
• Household income: $82,692
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,111 people
• By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
• By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
• By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -195.19%
• Current HPI: 142.5667
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.74%
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: List price $291,840Address: 564 Pelican Cove Way SE, Southport, NC 28461Status: Active
• HOA & community: Association fee of $265

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: Spec new-construction plan: Bedford INT

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area approximately 1,787