647 Skye Dr

Commerce, GA 30529

$359,900D-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,215 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 189 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,247/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,887
• Tax + insurance: −$496
• HOA: −$25
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-634/mo
• Annual: $-7,605/yr
• Cap rate: 4.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.55%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $100,772

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $360k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-634 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (31.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (37.6% below list).
• It's been on market 189 days — a 12% lower offer ($317k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $225k (37.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $38k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $36k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#271 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Commerce City (town): math 49% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #19 of 174 in GA (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.2%/yr); 151 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,167 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (59 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jackson County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 14896% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$62k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.3% in Commerce — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 189 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.