11651 NE 73rd Ln

East Bronson, FL 32621

$145,000C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Built 1993 · Manufactured · Pending · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,595/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$220
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $280/mo
• Annual: $3,357/yr
• Cap rate: 8.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.27%
• DSCR: 1.37
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $40,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $280 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#768 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Levy (rural): math 45% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #54 of 73 in FL (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Nature Coast Middle School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #399 of 571 statewide, top 71%, 90 students, 82% FRL, charter) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 62% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 154 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 199 units permitted in Levy County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Levy County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.2% in East Bronson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.