12219 Tempest Ln

Hudson, FL 34669

$292,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,455 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 163 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,055/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,602
• Tax + insurance: −$509
• HOA: −$172
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $-659/mo
• Annual: $-7,906/yr
• Cap rate: 3.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.25%
• DSCR: 0.59
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $85,514

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $292k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-659 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (28.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (29.6% below list).
• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $206k (29.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#289 in FL, #4,856 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, employment D, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Moon Lake Elementary School (math 30% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,787 of 2,144 statewide, top 84%, 579 students, 70% FRL); Crews Lake Middle School. (math 47% / reading 39%, grade D-, #331 of 571 statewide, top 59%, 834 students, 67% FRL); Hudson High School (math 45% / reading 40%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,387 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 48% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 414 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 33d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.