12219 Tempest Ln · Hudson, FL 34669

$298,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,455 sqft · SingleFamily · 116 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 5,843 sqft lot 2-car garage $172/mo HOA · 8% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Holly at 12219 Tempest Lane in Palm Wind! This thoughtfully designed home offers a bright and welcoming layout with plenty of natural light. The foyer opens to a kitchen that overlooks the dining area and great room, creating an easy flow for everyday living. Sliding doors lead to the patio, extending the living space outdoors and making the most of Florida's warm, sunny weather. Two secondary bedrooms share a full bathroom near the front of the home, while the primary suite is tucked away at the back for added privacy and comfort. Palm Wind in Hudson, Florida blends small-town coastal charm with modern community living. Enjoy planned amenities including a pool, cabana, tot lot, open lawn, butterfly garden, and dog park. Hudson offers natural escapes, old fishing village roots, and a welcoming atmosphere along Florida's beautiful nature coast. Additional Highlights Include: upgraded luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout main living areas, all appliances and window blinds included. Photos are for representative purposes only.

Key facts

• Dog park
• Single level living
• Butterfly garden

Tags

• SOUTH FACING LOT
• CONVENIENT 1ST FLOOR LIVING
• SINGLE LEVEL LIVING
• BUTTERFLY GARDEN
• DOG PARK

🏗️ New construction. The $298,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $308,499.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-635 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (27.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (29.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (29.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#289 in FL, #4,856 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, employment D, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Moon Lake Elementary School (math 30% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,787 of 2,144 statewide, top 84%, 579 students, 70% FRL); Crews Lake Middle School. (math 47% / reading 39%, grade D-, #331 of 571 statewide, top 59%, 834 students, 67% FRL); Hudson High School (math 45% / reading 40%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,387 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 48% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 365 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 32d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,231 (29.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.82%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $308,499
• List price: $298,999
• Delta: -4.05%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13974 Blustery Ct	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,453 (-0%)	1mo	$305,999	$211	87
12415 Whisk Ct	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,455 (0%)	4mo	$310,999	$214	81
13365 Tropical Breeze Way	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,455 (0%)	6mo	$305,000	$210	72
12487 Whisk Ct	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,603 (+10%)	8mo	$299,999	$187	59
12427 Gust Ct	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,603 (+10%)	7mo	$321,939	$201	58
13548 Marilyn Ct	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,501 (+3%)	4mo	$299,900	$200	58
12197 Isle Royale Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+7%)	3mo	$295,772	$190	51
12213 Isle Royale Dr	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+7%)	4mo	$291,772	$187	49
12300 Great Basin Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+7%)	3mo	$294,740	$189	49
12200 Isle Royale Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+7%)	3mo	$291,268	$187	48
12216 Isle Royale Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+7%)	4mo	$296,964	$190	48
12252 Great Basin Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+7%)	1mo	$296,772	$190	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-90,311
• Equity at exit: $45,998

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.51×
• Total profit: $-130,180
• Equity at exit: $26,673

Cash invested: $86,380 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 31 active · 16 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.6 mo (15%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $329,010 ($204/sqft)
• Median days on market: 154 d
• This list price: 29% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +4.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34669

• Home prices YoY: -24.1%
• Active inventory: 365
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,112 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,618
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$386 /mo · $4,627/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$172
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $-635

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,916

Max offer price $216,578

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-422	-5% $-529	+0% $-635	+5% $-742	+10% $-848
Rent	-10% $-802	-5% $-719	+0% $-635	+5% $-552	+10% $-468
Rate	-1.0pp $-480	-0.5pp $-557	base $-635	+0.5pp $-715	+1.0pp $-797

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,125
• Closing costs: $9,255
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13341 Tropical Breeze Way Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1455	$2,000	$1.37	54d	1	0.51mi
14033 Bream Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	31d	1	0.89mi
12909 Walnut Tree Ln Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1787	$1,860	$1.04	24d	1	1.04mi
12834 Lake Tree Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1106	$1,750	$1.58	7d	1	1.10mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply
• Financial info: Home warranty provided
• HOA & community: Community managed by Castle GroupMonthly HOA approximately $172.33 (quarterly fee referenced)Quarterly association fee covers pool and trashAssociation amenities include pool, playground, dog park, community mailbox, sidewalks, and street lightsAssociation approval requiredPets allowed with breed restrictionsDeed restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: DrivewayAttached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: Hurricane shutters
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectricity availableCable availableFiber optics availablePhone availableSewer availableWater availableUnderground utilitiesSprinkler meter
• Home design: Single family residenceOne storyUnder construction (projected completion May 31, 2026)South-facing
• Construction: Block constructionShingle roofSlab foundationNew constructionBuilt by Taylor Morrison (model: Holly)
• Exterior features: Front porchPatioHurricane shuttersSliding doorsPaved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGarbage disposalMicrowaveRangeRefrigeratorExhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplanWalk-in closetsWindow treatments (blinds)
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room with washer and electric dryer hookupsInside utility roomIrrigation equipment

HOA detail $172/mo · $2,064/yr

• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   pricedays on market $298,999 Active 116 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $295,999 Active 114 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $295,999 Active 113 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $295,999 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $295,999 Active 111 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   pricedays on market $295,999 Active 108 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $297,999 Active 106 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $297,999 Active 105 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $297,999 Active 103 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $297,999 Active 101 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $297,999 Active 100 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $297,999 Active 99 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $297,999 Active 98 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $297,999 Active 97 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $297,999 Active 94 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $297,999 Active 93 DOM
17. 2026-07-15
    days on market $297,999 Active 92 DOM
18. 2026-07-13
    days on market $297,999 Active 90 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $297,999 Active 89 DOM
20. 2026-07-11
    days on market $297,999 Active 88 DOM
21. 2026-07-10
    days on market $297,999 Active 87 DOM
22. 2026-07-09
    days on market $297,999 Active 86 DOM
23. 2026-07-07
    days on market $297,999 Active 84 DOM
24. 2026-07-06
    days on market $297,999 Active 83 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $297,999 Active 82 DOM
26. 2026-07-05
    days on market $297,999 Active 81 DOM
27. 2026-07-03
    days on market $297,999 Active 80 DOM
28. 2026-07-02
    pricedays on market $297,999 Active 79 DOM
29. 2026-07-01
    days on market $295,999 Active 78 DOM
30. 2026-06-30
    days on market $295,999 Active 77 DOM
31. 2026-06-29
    days on market $295,999 Active 76 DOM
32. 2026-06-28
    days on market $295,999 Active 75 DOM
33. 2026-06-27
    days on market $295,999 Active 74 DOM
34. 2026-06-26
    days on market $295,999 Active 73 DOM
35. 2026-06-24
    days on market $295,999 Active 71 DOM
36. 2026-06-22
    days on market $295,999 Active 69 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $295,999 Active 68 DOM
38. 2026-06-18
    days on market $295,999 Active 65 DOM
39. 2026-06-17
    days on market $295,999 Active 64 DOM
40. 2026-06-16
    days on market $295,999 Active 63 DOM
41. 2026-06-15
    days on market $295,999 Active 62 DOM
42. 2026-06-13
    days on market $295,999 Active 60 DOM
43. 2026-06-09
    days on market $295,999 Active 56 DOM
44. 2026-06-08
    days on market $295,999 Active 55 DOM
45. 2026-06-07
    days on market $295,999 Active 54 DOM
46. 2026-06-04
    days on market $295,999 Active 51 DOM
47. 2026-06-03
    days on market $295,999 Active 50 DOM
48. 2026-06-02
    days on market $295,999 Active 49 DOM
49. 2026-06-01
    days on market $295,999 Active 48 DOM
50. 2026-05-31
    days on market $295,999 Active 47 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,348
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,281
• − Property taxes: −$4,627
• − Insurance: −$1,542
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,028
• − Management: −$2,028
• − HOA: −$2,064
• − Depreciation: −$8,975
• Taxable loss: −$13,197
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,167
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,456/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a modern and well-maintained interior with a good curb appeal. Consider painting the exterior and landscaping to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and marketability ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 56/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Chango Elementary School A+ NY #133/2,108 Nat'l #798/41,679 Middle Crews Lake Middle School. D- FL #331/571 Nat'l #5,160/14,009 High Hudson High School F FL #264/667 Nat'l #7,501/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Hudson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #289
• US rank: #4856

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 570,045 people
• City population: 45,307
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,618
• Household income: $58,638
• Rent vs Own: 11.9% rent · 88.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

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Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Vietnamese 3% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.24%
• Current HPI: 321.5862
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply
• Financial info: Home warranty provided
• HOA & community: Community managed by Castle GroupMonthly HOA approximately $172.33 (quarterly fee referenced)Quarterly association fee covers pool and trashAssociation amenities include pool, playground, dog park, community mailbox, sidewalks, and street lightsAssociation approval requiredPets allowed with breed restrictionsDeed restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: DrivewayAttached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: Hurricane shutters
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectricity availableCable availableFiber optics availablePhone availableSewer availableWater availableUnderground utilitiesSprinkler meter
• Home design: Single family residenceOne storyUnder construction (projected completion May 31, 2026)South-facing
• Construction: Block constructionShingle roofSlab foundationNew constructionBuilt by Taylor Morrison (model: Holly)
• Exterior features: Front porchPatioHurricane shuttersSliding doorsPaved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGarbage disposalMicrowaveRangeRefrigeratorExhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplanWalk-in closetsWindow treatments (blinds)
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room with washer and electric dryer hookupsInside utility roomIrrigation equipment

Price history

-3.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Price Changed $295,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $295,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $299,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $299,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Listed $305,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-11 Listed $305,999 Zillow