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12219 Tempest Ln 🏗️ New Construction
F Composite 31.48
Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +7.5/15.0
  • Schools +5.6/10.0
  • Cash flow +5.4/30.0
  • Condition / age +5.0/5.0
  • Livability +3.7/5.0
  • Rent growth +2.5/5.0
  • 1% rule +1.7/10.0
  • DSCR +0.0/10.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$292,000

12219 Tempest Ln · Hudson, FL 34669
3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,455 sqft · SingleFamily · 163 Days on market
Built 2026 Excellent condition 5,843 sqft lot 2-car garage $172/mo HOA · 8% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Holly at 12219 Tempest Lane in Palm Wind! This thoughtfully designed home offers a bright and welcoming layout with plenty of natural light. The foyer opens to a kitchen that overlooks the dining area and great room, creating an easy flow for everyday living. Sliding doors lead to the patio, extending the living space outdoors and making the most of Florida's warm, sunny weather. Two secondary bedrooms share a full bathroom near the front of the home, while the primary suite is tucked away at the back for added privacy and comfort. Palm Wind in Hudson, Florida blends small-town coastal charm with modern community living. Enjoy planned amenities including a pool, cabana, tot lot, open lawn, butterfly garden, and dog park. Hudson offers natural escapes, old fishing village roots, and a welcoming atmosphere along Florida's beautiful nature coast. Additional Highlights Include: upgraded luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout main living areas, all appliances and window blinds included. Photos are for representative purposes only.

Key facts

  • Dog park
  • Single level living
  • Butterfly garden

Tags

SOUTH FACING LOTCONVENIENT 1ST FLOOR LIVINGSINGLE LEVEL LIVINGBUTTERFLY GARDENDOG PARK

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
🏗️ New construction. The $292,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $305,406.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $292k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-659 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (28.1% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (29.6% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $206k (29.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 74/100 on livability (#289 in FL, #4,856 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, employment D, commute F.
  • Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
  • Zoned schools: Moon Lake Elementary School (math 30% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,787 of 2,144 statewide, top 84%, 579 students, 70% FRL); Crews Lake Middle School. (math 47% / reading 39%, grade D-, #331 of 571 statewide, top 59%, 834 students, 67% FRL); Hudson High School (math 45% / reading 40%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,387 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 48% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
  • Market conditions: 414 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 33d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
  • This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $205,536 (29.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
  7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.67%
Cap rate
3.70%
Cash-on-cash
-9.25%
DSCR
0.59
GRM
12.4

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$305,406
List price
$292,000
Delta
-4.39%
Verdict
FAIR
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
12227 Tempest Ln 0.01mi 3/2.0 1,455 (0%) 0mo $299,999 $206 99
13974 Blustery Ct 0.26mi 3/2.0 1,453 (-0%) 3mo $305,999 $211 85
12415 Whisk Ct 0.34mi 3/2.0 1,455 (0%) 5mo $310,999 $214 80
11927 Foxfire Dr 0.32mi 3/2.0 1,400 (-4%) 1mo $322,500 $230 78
13548 Marilyn Ct 0.72mi 3/2.0 1,501 (+3%) 6mo $299,900 $200 57
12173 Isle Royale Dr 0.65mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,560 (+7%) 0mo $284,990 $183 52
12197 Isle Royale Dr 0.65mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,560 (+7%) 4mo $295,772 $190 49
12213 Isle Royale Dr 0.64mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,560 (+7%) 6mo $291,772 $187 48
12300 Great Basin Dr 0.69mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,560 (+7%) 4mo $294,740 $189 47
12200 Isle Royale Dr 0.68mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,560 (+7%) 5mo $291,268 $187 47
12252 Great Basin Dr 0.73mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,560 (+7%) 3mo $296,772 $190 46
12216 Isle Royale Dr 0.68mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,560 (+7%) 6mo $296,964 $190 46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-32.7%
Equity multiple
-0.07×
Total profit
$-91,315
Equity at exit
$45,537
10-year hold
IRR
-38.3%
Equity multiple
-0.56×
Total profit
$-132,995
Equity at exit
$26,406

Cash invested: $85,514 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Florida
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
34 active · 19 under contract
Months of supply
7.3 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$328,000 ($203/sqft)
Median days on market
198 d
This list price
9% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+3.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34669

Home prices YoY
-24.1%
Active inventory
414
Price-to-rent
11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,055 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,602
Tax est. 1.5%
$382 /mo · $4,581/yr
Insurance
$127
HOA
$172
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$432
Net cashflow
$-659

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,889
Max offer price $210,068
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-448 -5% $-553 +0% $-659 +5% $-764 +10% $-870
Rent -10% $-821 -5% $-740 +0% $-659 +5% $-578 +10% $-496
Rate -1.0pp $-505 -0.5pp $-581 base $-659 +0.5pp $-738 +1.0pp $-819

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$76,352
Closing costs
$9,162
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 11 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
13341 Tropical Breeze Way Hudson, FL 3.0 2.0 1455 $1,950 $1.34 44d 1 0.51mi
14033 Bream Dr Hudson, FL 3.0 2.0 1200 $1,600 $1.33 78d 1 0.89mi
13315 Golf Ridge Pl Hudson, FL 3.0 2.0 1639 $2,350 $1.43 10d 1 1.04mi
13315 Golf Ridge Pl Unit NA Hudson, FL 3.0 2.0 1639 $2,350 $1.43 43d 1 1.04mi
12909 Walnut Tree Ln Hudson, FL 3.0 2.0 1787 $1,860 $1.04 71d 1 1.04mi
12834 Lake Tree Ln Hudson, FL 2.0 2.0 1106 $1,650 $1.49 32d 1 1.10mi
12834 Lake Tree Ln Hudson, FL 2.0 2.0 1106 $1,650 $1.49 29d 1 1.10mi
12639 Skipper Ln Hudson, FL 3.0 2.0 1280 $1,550 $1.21 5d 1 1.18mi
13236 Molitor Ct Hudson, FL 2.0 2.0 1088 $1,600 $1.47 8d 1 1.24mi
13240 Prince Cir Hudson, FL 3.0 2.0 1780 $2,170 $1.22 10d 1 1.31mi
12509 Cavalier Ct Hudson, FL 2.0 2.0 1117 $1,800 $1.61 44d 1 1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Lease restrictions apply
Financial info
Home warranty provided
HOA & community
Community managed by Castle GroupMonthly HOA approximately $172.33 (quarterly fee referenced)Quarterly association fee covers pool and trashAssociation amenities include pool, playground, dog park, community mailbox, sidewalks, and street lightsAssociation approval requiredPets allowed with breed restrictionsDeed restrictions

Exterior

Parking
DrivewayAttached 2-car garage with garage door opener
Security
Hurricane shutters
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewerElectricity availableCable availableFiber optics availablePhone availableSewer availableWater availableUnderground utilitiesSprinkler meter
Home design
Single family residenceOne storyUnder construction (projected completion May 31, 2026)South-facing
Construction
Block constructionShingle roofSlab foundationNew constructionBuilt by Taylor Morrison (model: Holly)
Exterior features
Front porchPatioHurricane shuttersSliding doorsPaved road access

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherGarbage disposalMicrowaveRangeRefrigeratorExhaust fan
Bedrooms
3 bedrooms
Flooring
Carpet
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling
Central heatingCentral air conditioning
Interior features
Open floorplanWalk-in closetsWindow treatments (blinds)
Laundry & utility
Inside laundry room with washer and electric dryer hookupsInside utility roomIrrigation equipment

HOA detail $172/mo · $2,064/yr

Likely covers
pool

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-09-24
    days on market $292,000 Active 163 DOM
  2. 2026-09-23
    days on market $292,000 Active 162 DOM
  3. 2026-09-22
    days on market $292,000 Active 161 DOM
  4. 2026-09-21
    days on market $292,000 Active 160 DOM
  5. 2026-09-20
    days on market $292,000 Active 159 DOM
  6. 2026-09-19
    days on market $292,000 Active 158 DOM
  7. 2026-09-18
    days on market $292,000 Active 157 DOM
  8. 2026-09-16
    days on market $292,000 Active 155 DOM
  9. 2026-09-15
    days on market $292,000 Active 154 DOM
  10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $292,000 Active 152 DOM
  11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $292,000 Active 151 DOM
  12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $292,000 Active 150 DOM
  13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $292,000 Active 144 DOM
  14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $292,000 Active 143 DOM
  15. 2026-09-03
    pricedays on market $292,000 Active 142 DOM
  16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 139 DOM
  17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $299,000 Active 138 DOM
  18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $299,000 Active 137 DOM
  19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $299,000 Active 136 DOM
  20. 2026-08-26
    days on market $299,000 Active 134 DOM
  21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $299,000 Active 133 DOM
  22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $299,000 Active 132 DOM
  23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $299,000 Active 131 DOM
  24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $299,000 Active 130 DOM
  25. 2026-08-20
    days on market $299,000 Active 128 DOM
  26. 2026-08-19
    days on market $299,000 Active 127 DOM
  27. 2026-08-18
    days on market $299,000 Active 126 DOM
  28. 2026-08-17
    days on market $299,000 Active 125 DOM
  29. 2026-08-16
    days on market $299,000 Active 124 DOM
  30. 2026-08-15
    days on market $299,000 Active 123 DOM
  31. 2026-08-14
    days on market $299,000 Active 122 DOM
  32. 2026-08-13
    pricedays on market $299,000 Active 121 DOM
  33. 2026-08-12
    days on market $298,999 Active 120 DOM
  34. 2026-08-11
    days on market $298,999 Active 119 DOM
  35. 2026-08-10
    days on market $298,999 Active 118 DOM
  36. 2026-08-09
    days on market $298,999 Active 117 DOM
  37. 2026-08-08
    pricedays on market $298,999 Active 116 DOM
  38. 2026-08-06
    days on market $295,999 Active 114 DOM
  39. 2026-08-05
    days on market $295,999 Active 113 DOM
  40. 2026-08-04
    days on market $295,999 Active 112 DOM
  41. 2026-08-03
    days on market $295,999 Active 111 DOM
  42. 2026-07-31
    pricedays on market $295,999 Active 108 DOM
  43. 2026-07-30
    days on market $297,999 Active 106 DOM
  44. 2026-07-28
    days on market $297,999 Active 105 DOM
  45. 2026-07-26
    days on market $297,999 Active 103 DOM
  46. 2026-07-24
    days on market $297,999 Active 101 DOM
  47. 2026-07-23
    days on market $297,999 Active 100 DOM
  48. 2026-07-22
    days on market $297,999 Active 99 DOM
  49. 2026-07-21
    days on market $297,999 Active 98 DOM
  50. 2026-07-20
    days on market $297,999 Active 97 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
  • 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$24,664
− Mortgage interest
−$17,108
− Property taxes
−$4,581
− Insurance
−$1,527
− Repairs & maintenance
−$1,973
− Management
−$1,973
− HOA
−$2,064
− Depreciation
−$8,885
Taxable loss
−$13,446
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$3,227
After-tax cash flow
$-4,679/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a modern and well-maintained interior with a good curb appeal. Consider painting the exterior and landscaping to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

  • Resale Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal
  • Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal
  • Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and marketability
D Composite school gradezoned avg 56/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Chango Elementary School A+ NY #133/2,108 Nat'l #798/41,679 Middle Crews Lake Middle School. D- FL #331/571 Nat'l #5,160/14,009 High Hudson High School F FL #264/667 Nat'l #7,501/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Pasco
NCES district ID
1201530
Math proficiency
50% ▼ -10.00%
Reading proficiency
52% ▼ -5.00%
Median HH income
$45,039
Composite
43.14/100
National rank
#3074
State rank
#32 of 73 in FL
B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Hudson

Score
74/100
State rank
#289
US rank
#4856

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County
Pasco County · 570,045 people
City population
45,307
Metro
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
Population (ZIP)
14,618
Household income
$58,638
Rent vs Own
11.9% rent · 88.1% own
Severe rent burden
13% of renters

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
570,045 people
By 2030
605,844 · +6.3%
By 2040
674,806 · +18.4%
By 2050
736,022 · +29.1%
By 2075
862,900 · +51.4%
By 2100
906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Predominantly White (80%)
Race & ethnicity
White 80% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Asian 3%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 1%
Common ancestry
Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
Foreign-born
8% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
Languages at home
90% English-only · Spanish 7% Vietnamese 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

2024 margin
Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
2008→2024 swing
-21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
All cycles
2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

-3.3% since first listed
6 events — show timeline
  • 2026-05-30 Price Changed $295,999 Zillow
  • 2026-05-29 Price Changed $295,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-04-25 Price Changed $299,999 Zillow
  • 2026-04-24 Price Changed $299,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-04-14 Listed $305,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-04-11 Listed $305,999 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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