112 Lucard St

Taft, CA 93268

$92,500C-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 589 sqft · Built 1925 · SingleFamily · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $908/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$485
• Tax + insurance: −$226
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$191
• Net cashflow: $6/mo
• Annual: $73/yr
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.28%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $25,900

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $92k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6 ($73/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $91k (1.9% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $91k (1.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $640 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#945 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, employment D+, crime F.
• Taft City (town): math 28% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #946 of 1,400 in CA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Roosevelt Elementary (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #973 of 1,571 statewide, top 73%, 475 students, 89% FRL); Lincoln Junior High (math 75% / reading 75%, grade A, #25 of 498 statewide, top 6%, 795 students, 89% FRL); Taft Union High (math 8% / reading 47%, grade F, #785 of 1,170 statewide, top 67%, 1,102 students, 59% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+13.6%/yr); 125 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $92k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.3% in Taft — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.