46-01 39th Ave #106

New York, NY 11104

$599,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,124 sqft · Built 1961 · Condo · Pending · 289 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,752/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,141
• Tax + insurance: −$1,065
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$998
• Net cashflow: $-452/mo
• Annual: $-5,421/yr
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.76%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $167,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $599k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-452 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $534k (10.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $475k (20.7% below list).
• It's been on market 289 days — a 12% lower offer ($527k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $475k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.7%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 78 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,302 units permitted in Queens County in 2024 (4,918 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Queens County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,752/mo this rent would consume 71% of the median local household income ($81k/yr) (locally 1859% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 289 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?