16413 Grape Way

Delray Beach, FL 33484

$380,000D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,605 sqft · Built 1983 · Townhouse · Active · 50 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,753/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,993
• Tax + insurance: −$559
• HOA: −$563
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$788
• Net cashflow: $-149/mo
• Annual: $-1,793/yr
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.68%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $106,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $380k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-149 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $354k (6.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $375k (1.2% below list).
• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($369k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $354k (6.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#202 in FL, #3,160 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, commute A-; Watch: cost of living C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 546 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $210k; list at $380k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.3% in Delray Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,753/mo this rent would consume 72% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 991% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.