203 Winston Dr

Fredericksburg, TX 78624

$350,000D-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,567 sqft · Built 2018 · SingleFamily · Active · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,502/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax + insurance: −$617
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $-475/mo
• Annual: $-5,706/yr
• Cap rate: 4.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.82%
• DSCR: 0.74
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $98,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-475 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (24.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (28.5% below list).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($340k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $250k (28.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#182 in TX, #4,711 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety B+, cost of living B; Watch: employment C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Fredericksburg ISD (town): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #241 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 966 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 52 units permitted in Gillespie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gillespie County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 57% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 1.7% in Fredericksburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.