203 Winston Dr · Fredericksburg, TX 78624

$350,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,567 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 2018 5,662 sqft lot $223/sqft · 19% below area Est $432k · 19% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Say hello to one of the best values in Crabapple Grove Tucked away at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac on Winston Drive, this Fredericksburg gem brings charm AND a smart buy. With no through traffic and a peaceful setting, it's the kind of spot that just feels good the moment you pull up. Fresh to the market and priced below county appraisal, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home stands out as one of the most affordable 3-bedroom homes in the neighborhood-and it's in fantastic condition to boot. Inside, you'll find an easy, open-concept layout that's made for everyday living and effortless entertaining. The spacious living and kitchen areas flow together beautifully, anchored by granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a sleek undermount sink. A neutral, inviting palette keeps everything light, bright, and move-in ready. Step outside and you've got room to breathe. The large, fenced backyard is perfect for pets, play, or simply enjoying a Hill Country evening under the stars. Whether you're looking for a first home, a lock-and-leave, or a savvy investment-this one checks the boxes and keeps your budget happy. Easy. Comfortable. Smart. And just a little bit irresistible.

Key facts

• Undermount sink
• Cul-de-sac
• Granite countertops

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• UNDERMOUNT SINK
• LARGE FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community mailbox

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 covered garage spaces; Total of 4 parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; High-speed internet available; Phone available
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Slab foundation
• Construction: Stone and stucco exterior; Composition roof; Built per public records
• Exterior features: Private yard; Patio; Privacy fencing; Located on a cul-de-sac; East-facing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Main-level primary; Double pane windows; Window coverings; Accessibility features noted in remarks
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-475 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (24.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (28.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (28.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 1.7% in Fredericksburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#182 in TX, #4,711 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety B+, cost of living B; Watch: employment C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Fredericksburg ISD (town): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #241 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 966 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 52 units permitted in Gillespie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gillespie County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($340k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 57% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,232 (28.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.82%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $431,875
• List price: $350,000
• Delta: -18.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
126 Ridgewood	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,577 (+1%)	2mo	$550,000	$349	71
211 Crestwood Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,624 (+4%)	20mo	$495,000	$305	65
1718 Cherrywood Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,678 (+7%)	12mo	$439,000	$262	65
206 N Winston Dr	0.03mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,422 (-9%)	12mo	$412,000	$290	64
1510 W Trailmoor Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,580 (+1%)	13mo	$409,900	$259	60
1705 Cherrywood Dr	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,786 (+14%)	1mo	$399,990	$224	55
117 Ridgewood Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,468 (-6%)	11mo	$399,000	$272	55
101 Broadmoor	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,716 (+10%)	8mo	$420,000	$245	48
311 Broadmoor Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,664 (+6%)	14mo	$350,000	$210	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-86,941
• Equity at exit: $52,186

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-114,465
• Equity at exit: $30,262

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78624

• Active inventory: 966
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,502 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$471 /mo · $5,653/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $-475

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,104

Max offer price $266,003

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
229 Riley Ln Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1555	$2,350	$1.51	23d	1	0.12mi
1705 Cherrywood Dr Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1786	$2,500	$1.40	11d	1	0.25mi
210 Frederick Rd Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1575	$2,150	$1.37	14d	1	0.27mi
108 E Lower Crabapple Rd Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	939	$1,879	$2.00	1d	12	0.52mi
138 Stone Cyn Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	2146	$3,100	$1.44	16d	1	0.52mi
525 Northwood Hills Dr Fredericksburg, TX	2.0	2.0	1152	$2,000	$1.74	17d	1	0.53mi
1401 N Orange St Fredericksburg, TX	2.0	2.0	1222	$1,700	$1.39	43d	1	0.64mi
605 Paintbrush Hollow St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1611	$2,495	$1.55	23d	1	1.02mi
2078 Lower Crabapple Rd Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1464	$2,150	$1.47	23d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $350,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $350,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $350,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $350,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $350,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $350,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $350,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $350,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $375,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $375,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $375,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $375,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $375,000 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-05-01
    listed $375,000 Active 1237-char remark
15. 2026-04-30
    listed $375,000 New 1203-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1203 chars)

    Say hello to one of the best values in Crabapple Grove Tucked away at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac on Winston Drive, this Fredericksburg gem brings charm AND a smart buy. With no through traffic and a peaceful setting, it's the kind of spot that just feels good the moment you pull up. Fresh to the market and priced below county appraisal, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home stands out as one of the most affordable 3-bedroom homes in the neighborhood-and it's in fantastic condition to boot. Inside, you'll find an easy, open-concept layout that's made for everyday living and effortless entertaining. The spacious living and kitchen areas flow together beautifully, anchored by granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a sleek undermount sink. A neutral, inviting palette keeps everything light, bright, and move-in ready. Step outside and you've got room to breathe. The large, fenced backyard is perfect for pets, play, or simply enjoying a Hill Country evening under the stars. Whether you're looking for a first home, a lock-and-leave, or a savvy investment-this one checks the boxes and keeps your budget happy. Easy. Comfortable. Smart. And just a little bit irresistible.

16. 2026-04-20
    price $375,000

    Show marketing remark (1200 chars)

    Say hello to one of the best values in Crabapple Grove. Tucked away at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac on Winston Drive, this Fredericksburg gem brings charm AND a smart buy. With no through traffic and a peaceful setting, it's the kind of spot that just feels good the moment you pull up. Fresh to the market and priced below county appraisal, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home stands out as one of the most affordable 3-bedroom homes in the neighborhood—and it's in fantastic condition to boot. Inside, you'll find an easy, open-concept layout that's made for everyday living and effortless entertaining. The spacious living and kitchen areas flow together beautifully, anchored by granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a sleek undermount sink. A neutral, inviting palette keeps everything light, bright, and move-in ready. Step outside and you've got room to breathe. The large, fenced backyard is perfect for pets, play, or simply enjoying a Hill Country evening under the stars. Whether you're looking for a first home, a lock-and-leave, or a savvy investment—this one checks the boxes and keeps your budget happy. Easy. Comfortable. Smart. And just a little bit irresistible.

17. 2026-04-02
    listed $415,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (1200 chars)

    Say hello to one of the best values in Crabapple Grove. Tucked away at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac on Winston Drive, this Fredericksburg gem brings charm AND a smart buy. With no through traffic and a peaceful setting, it's the kind of spot that just feels good the moment you pull up. Fresh to the market and priced below county appraisal, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home stands out as one of the most affordable 3-bedroom homes in the neighborhood—and it's in fantastic condition to boot. Inside, you'll find an easy, open-concept layout that's made for everyday living and effortless entertaining. The spacious living and kitchen areas flow together beautifully, anchored by granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a sleek undermount sink. A neutral, inviting palette keeps everything light, bright, and move-in ready. Step outside and you've got room to breathe. The large, fenced backyard is perfect for pets, play, or simply enjoying a Hill Country evening under the stars. Whether you're looking for a first home, a lock-and-leave, or a savvy investment—this one checks the boxes and keeps your budget happy. Easy. Comfortable. Smart. And just a little bit irresistible.

18. 2021-12-30
    soldstatus
19. 2019-05-02
    soldstatus
20. 2019-05-02
    soldstatus
21. 2019-04-30
    historical
22. 2018-10-22
    listed $292,000
23. 2018-10-18
    listed $292,000
24. 2017-07-18
    soldstatus
25. 2016-05-12
    listed $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,653 · $471/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,405 · $534/mo
• Expected delta: +$752/yr (+$63/mo · 13.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 57% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,028
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$5,653
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,402
• − Management: −$2,402
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$11,966
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,872
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,834/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fredericksburg ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819840
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $54,655
• Composite: 39.9/100
• National rank: #3857
• State rank: #241 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fredericksburg

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #182
• US rank: #4711

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment C- Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fredericksburg, TX
• County: Gillespie County · 23,741 people
• City population: 23,741
• Metro: Fredericksburg, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,741
• Household income: $75,237
• Rent vs Own: 26.3% rent · 73.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 470.0

Population outlook (Gillespie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,213 people
• By 2030: 29,243 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 31,133 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 32,854 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 37,597 · +33.3%
• By 2100: 39,369 · +39.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% German/W. Germanic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gillespie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.2% · R 80.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: -56.6pp · 2024: -60.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.9 2020: R+58.9 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+65.8 2008: R+56.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -209.14%
• Current HPI: 218.7201
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Fredericksburg, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+600.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Price Changed $350,000 LERA
• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $350,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $350,000 CHCMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $375,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $375,000 LERA
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $375,000 CHCMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $415,000 CHCMLS
• 2021-12-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-05-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-05-02 Sold (MLS) — CHCMLS
• 2019-04-30 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2018-10-22 Listed $292,000 CHCMLS
• 2018-10-18 Listed $292,000 LERA
• 2017-07-18 Sold (MLS) — CHCMLS
• 2016-05-12 Listed $50,000 CHCMLS

Property tax history

+30.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,653 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.