Nova Plan

Lehigh Acres, FL 33974

$387,999D

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,041 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 159 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,902/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,035
• Tax + insurance: −$647
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$609
• Net cashflow: $-389/mo
• Annual: $-4,670/yr
• Cap rate: 5.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.30%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $108,640

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $388k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-389 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $332k (14.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $290k (25.2% below list).
• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($341k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $290k (25.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $41k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $39k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#826 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, schools D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.7%/yr); 2460 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$67k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,902/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($72k/yr) (locally 434% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.