3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
912 sqft ·
Built 1963
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 38 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,341/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$970
Tax + insurance
−$228
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$282
Net cashflow
$-139/mo
Annual
$-1,667/yr
Cap rate
5.39%
Cash-on-cash
-3.22%
DSCR
0.86
1% rule
0.72%
Cash to close
$51,800
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-139 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (13.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (27.5% below list).
It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $134k (27.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#45 in NC, #4,031 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Douglas Byrd Middle (math 13% / reading 30%, grade F, #422 of 475 statewide, top 89%, 935 students, 100% FRL); Douglas Byrd High (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #445 of 535 statewide, top 84%, 940 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 55% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 222 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
6 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $115k; list at $185k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29