188 Miller St

Zavalla, TX 75980

$99,999C+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 704 sqft · Built 2000 · Manufactured · Pending · 85 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,060/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $191/mo
• Annual: $2,291/yr
• Cap rate: 8.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.18%
• DSCR: 1.36
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $28,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $191 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $12 of equity ($691 loan paydown + $-679 appreciation (-0.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,345 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Zavalla ISD (rural): math 45% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #828 of 1,141 in TX (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 120 units permitted in Angelina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (-0.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 92% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 2.2% in Zavalla — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.