188 Miller St · Zavalla, TX 75980

$99,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 704 sqft · Manufactured public records · 85 Days on market

Built 2000 2.08 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.7/30.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape to the lake with this cozy 704 square foot, 3 bedroom, 1 bath cabin situated on 2.08 fully fenced, usable acres. Located just 10 minutes from both Cassels Boykin and Monterey Boat Ramps, this property offers easy access to all the recreation Sam Rayburn Lake is known for. The cabin features a comfortable and efficient layout, ideal for weekend getaways, fishing trips, or a low maintenance full time residence. The expansive, level acreage provides plenty of room to build a shop, additional storage, or other improvements to suit your needs, while still leaving ample space for outdoor activities and parking boats or trailers. Conveniently located near local restaurants, a tackle store, fuel station, and grocery store, you can enjoy the peace of country living with everyday conveniences close by. Whether you are searching for a fishing retreat, investment property, or personal getaway, this property is a great opportunity to enjoy the Sam Rayburn Lake lifestyle.

Key facts

• Expansive acreage
• Easy access
• Fully fenced

Tags

• FULLY FENCED
• USABLE ACRES
• EXPANSIVE ACREAGE
• EASY ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $191 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 2.1% in Zavalla — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,345 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Zavalla ISD (rural): math 45% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #828 of 1,141 in TX (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 120 units permitted in Angelina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12 of equity ($691 loan paydown + $-679 appreciation (-0.7% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (-0.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 92% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,999 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.18%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.68% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $6,074
• Equity at exit: $25,687

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $30,568
• Equity at exit: $28,316

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75980

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,060 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $963/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $191

Break-even live

Break-even rent $818

Max offer price $99,999

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 979-char remark

   Show marketing remark (979 chars)

   Escape to the lake with this cozy 704 square foot, 3 bedroom, 1 bath cabin situated on 2.08 fully fenced, usable acres. Located just 10 minutes from both Cassels Boykin and Monterey Boat Ramps, this property offers easy access to all the recreation Sam Rayburn Lake is known for. The cabin features a comfortable and efficient layout, ideal for weekend getaways, fishing trips, or a low maintenance full time residence. The expansive, level acreage provides plenty of room to build a shop, additional storage, or other improvements to suit your needs, while still leaving ample space for outdoor activities and parking boats or trailers. Conveniently located near local restaurants, a tackle store, fuel station, and grocery store, you can enjoy the peace of country living with everyday conveniences close by. Whether you are searching for a fishing retreat, investment property, or personal getaway, this property is a great opportunity to enjoy the Sam Rayburn Lake lifestyle.

2. 2026-01-19
   listed $99,999 Active 979-char remark

   Show marketing remark (979 chars)

   Escape to the lake with this cozy 704 square foot, 3 bedroom, 1 bath cabin situated on 2.08 fully fenced, usable acres. Located just 10 minutes from both Cassels Boykin and Monterey Boat Ramps, this property offers easy access to all the recreation Sam Rayburn Lake is known for. The cabin features a comfortable and efficient layout, ideal for weekend getaways, fishing trips, or a low maintenance full time residence. The expansive, level acreage provides plenty of room to build a shop, additional storage, or other improvements to suit your needs, while still leaving ample space for outdoor activities and parking boats or trailers. Conveniently located near local restaurants, a tackle store, fuel station, and grocery store, you can enjoy the peace of country living with everyday conveniences close by. Whether you are searching for a fishing retreat, investment property, or personal getaway, this property is a great opportunity to enjoy the Sam Rayburn Lake lifestyle.

3. 2019-04-30
   soldstatus
4. 2016-11-15
   soldstatus
5. 2012-01-23
   soldstatus
6. 2003-05-06
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $963 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,830 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$867/yr (+$72/mo · 90.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 92% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,717
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,601
• − Property taxes: −$963
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,017
• − Management: −$1,017
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $709
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$170
• After-tax cash flow: $2,121/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Zavalla ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846740
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,711
• Composite: 33.9/100
• National rank: #10351
• State rank: #828 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Zavalla

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1345
• US rank: #23201

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Zavalla, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,309

Population outlook (Angelina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,174 people
• By 2030: 90,697 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 91,291 · +1.2%
• By 2050: 91,168 · +1.1%
• By 2075: 88,961 · -1.3%
• By 2100: 80,590 · -10.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 5% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Angelina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.0) · D 23.7% · R 75.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.0pp toward R · 2008: -35.0pp · 2024: -52.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.0 2020: R+46.1 2016: R+47.3 2012: R+43.9 2008: R+35.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.68%
• Current HPI: 321.9875
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-01-19 Listed $99,999 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2019-04-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-11-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-01-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-05-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $963 · +35.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.