112 Pines Ln

Shipman, VA 22971

$219,999C

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1988 · SingleFamily · Pending · 84 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax + insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $270/mo
• Annual: $3,238/yr
• Cap rate: 7.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.26%
• DSCR: 1.23
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $61,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $270 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (9.1% below list).
• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $200k (9.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#550 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Nelson County Public School District (rural): math 42% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #92 of 131 in VA (top 70%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 66 units permitted in Nelson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nelson County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $220k implies a 363% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.