112 Pines Ln · Shipman, VA 22971

$219,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1988 0.69 ac lot $229/sqft · at area comps Est $223k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in the leafy community of Montreal Village, this cozy rancher is ready for its next owner's vision. The single level plan includes a spacious living room, an open kitchen/dining space, laundry, three bedrooms and a full bathroom. The back deck is perfect for entertaining. Set on a large, level lot, the property offers plenty of possibilities for pets, play, and gardening. Two car garage. Shed for additional storage. Only 35 minutes to Charlottesville!

Key facts

• Large level lot
• Back deck
• 0.69 acre lot

Tags

• BACK DECK
• LARGE LEVEL LOT
• SHED FOR ADDITIONAL STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $270 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (9.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (9.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#550 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Nelson County Public School District (rural): math 42% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #92 of 131 in VA (top 70%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 66 units permitted in Nelson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Nelson County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $220k implies a 363% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,000 (9.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.26%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $222,816
• List price: $219,999
• Delta: -1.26%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
363 Village Rd	0.07mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (0%)	17mo	$192,000	$200	78
428 Montreal Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0	960 (0%)	4mo	$245,500	$256	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.93% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $31,341
• Equity at exit: $85,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $103,314
• Equity at exit: $123,012

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22971

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $778/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $270

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,658

Max offer price $219,999

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7 Helena Ln Shipman, VA	3.0	1.0	988	$2,000	$2.02	13d	1	0.99mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-13
   price $219,999 463-char remark

   Show marketing remark (463 chars)

   Nestled in the leafy community of Montreal Village, this cozy rancher is ready for its next owner's vision. The single level plan includes a spacious living room, an open kitchen/dining space, laundry, three bedrooms and a full bathroom. The back deck is perfect for entertaining. Set on a large, level lot, the property offers plenty of possibilities for pets, play, and gardening. Two car garage. Shed for additional storage. Only 35 minutes to Charlottesville!

2. 2026-03-19
   price $229,999 463-char remark

   Show marketing remark (463 chars)

   Nestled in the leafy community of Montreal Village, this cozy rancher is ready for its next owner's vision. The single level plan includes a spacious living room, an open kitchen/dining space, laundry, three bedrooms and a full bathroom. The back deck is perfect for entertaining. Set on a large, level lot, the property offers plenty of possibilities for pets, play, and gardening. Two car garage. Shed for additional storage. Only 35 minutes to Charlottesville!

3. 2026-03-04
   price $239,000 463-char remark

   Show marketing remark (463 chars)

   Nestled in the leafy community of Montreal Village, this cozy rancher is ready for its next owner's vision. The single level plan includes a spacious living room, an open kitchen/dining space, laundry, three bedrooms and a full bathroom. The back deck is perfect for entertaining. Set on a large, level lot, the property offers plenty of possibilities for pets, play, and gardening. Two car garage. Shed for additional storage. Only 35 minutes to Charlottesville!

4. 2026-02-17
   listed $240,000 Active 463-char remark

   Show marketing remark (463 chars)

   Nestled in the leafy community of Montreal Village, this cozy rancher is ready for its next owner's vision. The single level plan includes a spacious living room, an open kitchen/dining space, laundry, three bedrooms and a full bathroom. The back deck is perfect for entertaining. Set on a large, level lot, the property offers plenty of possibilities for pets, play, and gardening. Two car garage. Shed for additional storage. Only 35 minutes to Charlottesville!

5. 2014-03-21
   soldstatus $47,500 207-char remark

   Show marketing remark (207 chars)

   It's Not Perfect and that's exactly why you can buy this 3 bedroom home for only $55,900. Renovate and Enjoy. Proof of funds required for cash offers and Preapproval required for financing offers. Sold AS IS

6. 2014-01-17
   listed $55,900 207-char remark

   Show marketing remark (207 chars)

   It's Not Perfect and that's exactly why you can buy this 3 bedroom home for only $55,900. Renovate and Enjoy. Proof of funds required for cash offers and Preapproval required for financing offers. Sold AS IS

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $778 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,804 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,026/yr (+$86/mo · 132.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$778
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$441
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$106
• After-tax cash flow: $3,344/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nelson County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102580
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -45.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $50,092
• Composite: 44.37/100
• National rank: #2818
• State rank: #92 of 131 in VA

Livability — Shipman

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #550
• US rank: #25472

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shipman, VA
• Population (ZIP): 2,349

Population outlook (Nelson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,115 people
• By 2030: 13,563 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 12,384 · -12.3%
• By 2050: 11,481 · -18.7%
• By 2075: 10,103 · -28.4%
• By 2100: 8,788 · -37.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Cuban 7%
• Common ancestry: Swedish 5% Serbian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Nelson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.5) · D 45.8% · R 53.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.7pp toward R · 2008: 9.2pp · 2024: -7.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.5 2020: R+5.2 2016: R+5.7 2012: D+2.8 2008: D+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.93%
• Current HPI: 330.5576
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+293.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $219,999 CAAR
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $229,999 CAAR
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $239,000 CAAR
• 2026-02-17 Listed $240,000 CAAR
• 2014-03-21 Sold (MLS) $47,500 LMLS
• 2014-01-17 Listed $55,900 LMLS

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2019): $778 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.