12339 Hetherton Rd

Johannesburg, MI 49751

$120,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,231 sqft · Built 1943 · SingleFamily · Pending · 123 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,044/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $91/mo
• Annual: $1,089/yr
• Cap rate: 7.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.24%
• DSCR: 1.14
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $33,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $91 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $104k (13.0% below list).
• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $104k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Johannesburg-Lewiston Area Schools (rural): math 33% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #257 of 540 in MI (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Johannesburglewiston High School (math 34% / reading 54%, grade F, #214 of 713 statewide, top 36%, 218 students, 59% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1943 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Otsego County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Otsego County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1943 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.