12339 Hetherton Rd · Johannesburg, MI 49751

$120,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,231 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 123 Days on market

Built 1943 10 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come check out this charming home on 10 acres in Charlton Township! This property has 2 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom and just over 1200 square feet of living space. The property will require some of your finishing touches to be added but is a great opportunity for someone who is handy! Call today to schedule your showing!

Key facts

• 10 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1943

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Well water; Electricity available; Propane water heater
• Home design: Traditional single-family residence; Built in 1943
• Construction: Wood siding; Shingle roof; Crawl space and slab foundation
• Exterior features: 10-acre lot; Pole barn; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Freezer
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace (heating)
• Interior features: LP tank owned; Fireplace; 6 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $91 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $104k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $104k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Johannesburg-Lewiston Area Schools (rural): math 33% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #257 of 540 in MI (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Johannesburglewiston High School (math 34% / reading 54%, grade F, #214 of 713 statewide, top 36%, 218 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Otsego County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Otsego County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1943 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $104,401 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1943 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.24%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-13,707
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-4,666
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49751

• Home prices YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,044 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $657/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $91

Break-even live

Break-even rent $929

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $159	-5% $125	+0% $91	+5% $57	+10% $23
Rent	-10% $8	-5% $50	+0% $91	+5% $132	+10% $173
Rate	-1.0pp $151	-0.5pp $121	base $91	+0.5pp $60	+1.0pp $28

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 323-char remark

   Show marketing remark (323 chars)

   Come check out this charming home on 10 acres in Charlton Township! This property has 2 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom and just over 1200 square feet of living space. The property will require some of your finishing touches to be added but is a great opportunity for someone who is handy! Call today to schedule your showing!

2. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 323-char remark

   Show marketing remark (323 chars)

   Come check out this charming home on 10 acres in Charlton Township! This property has 2 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom and just over 1200 square feet of living space. The property will require some of your finishing touches to be added but is a great opportunity for someone who is handy! Call today to schedule your showing!

3. 2026-05-11
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (323 chars)

   Come check out this charming home on 10 acres in Charlton Township! This property has 2 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom and just over 1200 square feet of living space. The property will require some of your finishing touches to be added but is a great opportunity for someone who is handy! Call today to schedule your showing!

4. 2026-01-08
   listed $120,000 Active 323-char remark

   Show marketing remark (323 chars)

   Come check out this charming home on 10 acres in Charlton Township! This property has 2 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom and just over 1200 square feet of living space. The property will require some of your finishing touches to be added but is a great opportunity for someone who is handy! Call today to schedule your showing!

5. 2026-01-08
   listed $120,000 Active 323-char remark

   Show marketing remark (323 chars)

   Come check out this charming home on 10 acres in Charlton Township! This property has 2 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom and just over 1200 square feet of living space. The property will require some of your finishing touches to be added but is a great opportunity for someone who is handy! Call today to schedule your showing!

6. 2026-01-08
   listed $120,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (323 chars)

   Come check out this charming home on 10 acres in Charlton Township! This property has 2 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom and just over 1200 square feet of living space. The property will require some of your finishing touches to be added but is a great opportunity for someone who is handy! Call today to schedule your showing!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $657 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,252 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$596/yr (+$50/mo · 90.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,528
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$657
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,002
• − Management: −$1,002
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$946
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$227
• After-tax cash flow: $1,316/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johannesburg-Lewiston Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2619890
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $39,218
• Composite: 31.36/100
• National rank: #5995
• State rank: #257 of 540 in MI

Livability — Johannesburg

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,008

Population outlook (Otsego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,175 people
• By 2030: 23,836 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 22,718 · -6.0%
• By 2050: 21,411 · -11.4%
• By 2075: 18,864 · -22.0%
• By 2100: 15,011 · -37.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Lithuanian 10% Iranian 5%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Otsego

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.3) · D 31.6% · R 67.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.5pp toward R · 2008: -8.9pp · 2024: -35.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.3 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+37.6 2012: R+19.7 2008: R+8.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.35%
• Current HPI: 273.0581
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-11 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-11 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-01-08 Listed $120,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-01-08 Listed $120,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-01-08 Listed $120,000 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $657 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.