2988 Grey Moss Dr

St. Cloud, FL 34773

$479,990F

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,490 sqft · Built 2025 · Land · Pending · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,077/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,517
• Tax + insurance: −$482
• HOA: −$44
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$646
• Net cashflow: $-612/mo
• Annual: $-7,346/yr
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.47%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $134,397

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $480k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-612 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $372k (22.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $308k (35.9% below list).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($466k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $308k (35.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $-2k appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Harmony Community School (math 70% / reading 64%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 1,012 students, 38% FRL); Narcoossee Middle School (math 55% / reading 57%, grade B-, #175 of 571 statewide, top 31%, 1,371 students, 46% FRL); Harmony High School (math 40% / reading 46%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 2,822 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 60% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 55% at this address vs 42% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Osceola average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 388 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• At $3,077/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($81k/yr) (locally 47% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.