2988 Grey Moss Dr · St. Cloud, FL 34773

$479,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,490 sqft · Land · 43 Days on market

Built 2025 6,970 sqft lot $44/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Welcome to the Covington, an exquisite single-story floor plan designed with your modern lifestyle in mind. This spacious home offers 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and a 3-car garage, ensuring ample space for comfortable living and entertaining. The Covington features an open-concept layout that seamlessly integrates the living room, dining area, and kitchen, creating a perfect space for family gatherings and social occasions. The stylish kitchen is a chef’s dream, equipped with stainless steel appliances, a large center island with seating, and a walk-in pantry for ample storage. The primary bedroom, located for optimal privacy at the rear of the home, offers a serene

Key facts

• 6,970 sq ft lot
• 3 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included; CDD present; Lease restrictions apply
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $2,214
• HOA & community: HOA (Association Solutions of Central Florida) — required; monthly approx. $44.33 (quarterly association fee $133); Community amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, playground, pool, sidewalks, street lights; Pets allowed: cats and dogs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 3-car garage (20 x 27)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Cable available; Underground utilities; Water available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Under construction (projected completion: 2026-06-17); North-facing
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction; Builder: D.R. Horton (Covington model); Builder license: cbc1258559; Permit number: P26-000693; Living area (builder): 2,490 sq ft; Building area total: 3,090 sq ft
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Metered irrigation/sprinkler

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen-family room combo; Open floorplan; Solid surface counters; Stone counters; Split bedroom layout; Thermostat; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $480k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-612 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $372k (22.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $308k (35.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $308k (35.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Harmony Community School (math 70% / reading 64%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 1,012 students, 38% FRL); Narcoossee Middle School (math 55% / reading 57%, grade B-, #175 of 571 statewide, top 31%, 1,371 students, 46% FRL); Harmony High School (math 40% / reading 46%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 2,822 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 60% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 55% at this address vs 42% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Osceola average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 388 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,077/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($81k/yr) (locally 47% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $-2k appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($466k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $307,703 (35.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.47%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.47% appreciation · 1.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-67,283
• Equity at exit: $128,280

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-72,679
• Equity at exit: $145,603

Cash invested: $134,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34773

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 388
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,077 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,517
• Tax from tax record: −$282 /mo · $3,383/yr
• Insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$44
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$646
• Net cashflow: $-612

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,852

Max offer price $371,848

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-340	-5% $-476	+0% $-612	+5% $-748	+10% $-884
Rent	-10% $-855	-5% $-734	+0% $-612	+5% $-491	+10% $-369
Rate	-1.0pp $-370	-0.5pp $-490	base $-612	+0.5pp $-737	+1.0pp $-863

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $119,998
• Closing costs: $14,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7110 Sandhill Crane Way Unit 1 St Cloud, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,722	$1.49	25d	1	0.48mi
6847 Botanic Blvd Harmony, FL	4.0	2.5	2306	$2,600	$1.13	25d	1	1.03mi
6833 Cranes Roost Rd Harmony, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,350	$1.28	25d	1	1.16mi
2937 Hooded Crane Cv Harmony, FL	4.0	3.5	2841	$2,699	$0.95	25d	1	1.33mi
6792 Huntleigh Hammock Rd Harmony, FL	4.0	2.5	2268	$2,900	$1.28	19d	1	1.40mi
6766 Grace Hammock Rd Harmony, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,400	$1.31	0d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $44 · $528/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-06
   listed $479,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,383 · $282/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,984 · $332/mo
• Expected delta: +$601/yr (+$50/mo · 17.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,924
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,887
• − Property taxes: −$3,383
• − Insurance: −$2,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,954
• − Management: −$2,954
• − HOA: −$528
• − Depreciation: −$13,963
• Taxable loss: −$16,145
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,875
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,471/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Osceola
• NCES district ID: 1201470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,528
• Composite: 35.7/100
• National rank: #4865
• State rank: #60 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. Cloud

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Osceola County · 410,217 people
• City population: 29,247
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 5,816
• Household income: $80,524
• Rent vs Own: 10.2% rent · 89.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 47.0

Population outlook (Osceola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,624 people
• By 2030: 511,823 · +14.3%
• By 2040: 642,986 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 774,552 · +73.0%
• By 2075: 1,078,144 · +140.9%
• By 2100: 1,269,660 · +183.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 20%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Osceola

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 19.7pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+13.8 2016: D+25.0 2012: D+24.5 2008: D+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.47%
• Current HPI: 279.5662
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.79%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Listed $479,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid