2098 E State Hwy 154

Gilmer, TX 75645

$299,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,817 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Active · 286 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,654/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax + insurance: −$378
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $-640/mo
• Annual: $-7,677/yr
• Cap rate: 3.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.17%
• DSCR: 0.59
• 1% rule: 0.55%
• Cash to close: $83,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-640 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $186k (37.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (44.7% below list).
• It's been on market 286 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $165k (44.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,257 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Gilmer ISD (town): math 44% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #372 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Gilmer El (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 1,179 students, 81% FRL); Bruce J H (math 44% / reading 40%, grade D-, #572 of 1,662 statewide, top 36%, 429 students, 78% FRL); Gilmer H S (math 63% / reading 53%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 815 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 54% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 34 units permitted in Upshur County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Upshur County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.8% in Gilmer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 286 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.