2098 E State Hwy 154 · Gilmer, TX 75645

$299,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,817 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 286 Days on market

Built 1970 0.69 ac lot $106/sqft · 44% below area Est $535k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3/2/2 Home with a guest house it has 3 bedrooms and 1 bath. Large home with 2 bedrooms downstairs & 1 bedroom upstairs. Large closets. Large kitchen has tons of cabinets. Living room has a fireplace. Guest house is 2 bedroom 1 bath they have enclosed the garage to make a 3rd bedroom but can easily be changed out. Has another 2 car carport with a small workshop. To much to list come see. If you have a large family come see!

Key facts

• Carport
• Guest house
• Large kitchen

Tags

• GUEST HOUSE
• LARGE KITCHEN
• LIVING ROOM FIREPLACE
• CARPORT
• SMALL WORKSHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-640 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $186k (37.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (44.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (44.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.8% in Gilmer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,257 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Gilmer ISD (town): math 44% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #372 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Gilmer El (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 1,179 students, 81% FRL); Bruce J H (math 44% / reading 40%, grade D-, #572 of 1,662 statewide, top 36%, 429 students, 78% FRL); Gilmer H S (math 63% / reading 53%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 815 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 54% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 34 units permitted in Upshur County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Upshur County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 286 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,383 (44.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 286 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.17%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 15.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $534,616
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: -44.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $122,049
• Equity at exit: $269,363

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.67×
• Total profit: $391,359
• Equity at exit: $580,891

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75645

• Home prices YoY: 12.7%
• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 15.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,654 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$254 /mo · $3,044/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $-640

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,464

Max offer price $185,987

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-470	-5% $-555	+0% $-640	+5% $-724	+10% $-809
Rent	-10% $-770	-5% $-705	+0% $-640	+5% $-574	+10% $-509
Rate	-1.0pp $-489	-0.5pp $-564	base $-640	+0.5pp $-717	+1.0pp $-796

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $299,000 Active 286 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $299,000 Active 284 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 283 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 282 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 281 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 280 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,000 Active 278 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 277 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,000 Active 275 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $299,000 Active 274 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,000 Active 273 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,000 Active 272 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $299,000 Active 269 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 268 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 267 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 266 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 265 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,000 Active 264 DOM
19. 2025-09-08
    listed $349,000 Active 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    3/2/2 Home with a guest house it has 3 bedrooms and 1 bath. Large home with 2 bedrooms downstairs & 1 bedroom upstairs. Large closets. Large kitchen has tons of cabinets. Living room has a fireplace. Guest house is 2 bedroom 1 bath they have enclosed the garage to make a 3rd bedroom but can easily be changed out. Has another 2 car carport with a small workshop. To much to list come see. If you have a large family come see!

20. 2021-06-28
    soldstatus 451-char remark

    Show marketing remark (451 chars)

    3/2/2 Home With A Guest House! Large Home With 2 Bedrooms Downstairs And 1 Bedroom Upstairs. Large Closets. Large Kitchen Has Tons Of Cabinets! Living Room With Fireplace. Guest house is 2 Bedroom 1 Bath they have enclosed the garage to make a 3rd bedroom but can easily be changed out. Has another 2 Car Carport With A Small Shop/Workshop! To Much To List This Is A MUST SEE! If You Have A Large Family This Would Be Perfect! Has Nice BIG TREES!

21. 2021-01-28
    listed $209,000 451-char remark

    Show marketing remark (451 chars)

    3/2/2 Home With A Guest House! Large Home With 2 Bedrooms Downstairs And 1 Bedroom Upstairs. Large Closets. Large Kitchen Has Tons Of Cabinets! Living Room With Fireplace. Guest house is 2 Bedroom 1 Bath they have enclosed the garage to make a 3rd bedroom but can easily be changed out. Has another 2 Car Carport With A Small Shop/Workshop! To Much To List This Is A MUST SEE! If You Have A Large Family This Would Be Perfect! Has Nice BIG TREES!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,044 · $254/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,472 · $456/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,427/yr (+$202/mo · 79.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 55% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,846
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$3,044
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,588
• − Management: −$1,588
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$13,316
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,196
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,481/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gilmer ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820700
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,724
• Composite: 35.04/100
• National rank: #5038
• State rank: #372 of 826 in TX

Livability — Gilmer

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1257
• US rank: #21903

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,511

Population outlook (Upshur County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,771 people
• By 2030: 43,788 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 45,574 · +6.6%
• By 2050: 46,683 · +9.1%
• By 2075: 49,137 · +14.9%
• By 2100: 47,457 · +11.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Upshur

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.0) · D 14.2% · R 85.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.0pp toward R · 2008: -49.0pp · 2024: -71.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.0 2020: R+68.5 2016: R+68.0 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+49.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 35.93%
• Current HPI: 319.83
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+67.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-08 Listed $349,000 LAAR
• 2021-06-28 Sold (MLS) — LAAR
• 2021-01-28 Listed $209,000 LAAR

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2020): $3,044 · -2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.