1021 Erwin Rd

Stonewall, MS 39363

$77,900C

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Active · 58 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $832/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax + insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$175
• Net cashflow: $156/mo
• Annual: $1,870/yr
• Cap rate: 8.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.57%
• DSCR: 1.38
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $21,812

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $78k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $156 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($832 rent vs $78k).
• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $76k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $539 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $881 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#325 in MS) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Quitman School District (rural): math 13% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #106 of 130 in MS (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP.
• Clarke County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.