1021 Erwin Rd · Stonewall, MS 39363

$77,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1978 1.46 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.2/30.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming country home filled with warmth and character. Featuring 3 comfortable bedrooms and 1 full bath, this cozy residence offers the perfect blend of simplicity and charm. Step outside to enjoy the spacious, open yard--ideal for gardening, outdoor gatherings, or simply soaking in the peaceful surroundings. Whether you're looking for a quiet retreat or a place to make lasting memories, this home offers a beautiful heart and plenty of room to grow. Sold ''as is''

Key facts

• 1.46 acre lot
• Built 1978
• Listed 57 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $78k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $156 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($832 rent vs $78k).
• Recommended offer: $76k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#325 in MS) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Quitman School District (rural): math 13% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #106 of 130 in MS (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $539 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $881 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clarke County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,563 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.57%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $3,585
• Equity at exit: $18,312

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.00×
• Total profit: $21,729
• Equity at exit: $18,813

Cash invested: $21,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39363

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $832 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $723/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$175
• Net cashflow: $156

Break-even live

Break-even rent $634

Max offer price $77,900

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $200	-5% $178	+0% $156	+5% $134	+10% $112
Rent	-10% $90	-5% $123	+0% $156	+5% $189	+10% $222
Rate	-1.0pp $195	-0.5pp $176	base $156	+0.5pp $136	+1.0pp $115

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,475
• Closing costs: $2,337
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $77,900 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $77,900 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $77,900 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $77,900 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $77,900 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $77,900 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $77,900 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $77,900 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $77,900 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $77,900 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $77,900 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $79,900 Active 38 DOM
17. 2026-04-22
    listed $79,900 Active 485-char remark

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    Welcome to this charming country home filled with warmth and character. Featuring 3 comfortable bedrooms and 1 full bath, this cozy residence offers the perfect blend of simplicity and charm. Step outside to enjoy the spacious, open yard--ideal for gardening, outdoor gatherings, or simply soaking in the peaceful surroundings. Whether you're looking for a quiet retreat or a place to make lasting memories, this home offers a beautiful heart and plenty of room to grow. Sold ''as is''

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $723 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $723 · $60/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,980
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,364
• − Property taxes: −$723
• − Insurance: −$390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$798
• − Management: −$798
• − Depreciation: −$2,266
• Taxable income: $641
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$154
• After-tax cash flow: $1,716/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Quitman School District
• NCES district ID: 2803780
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $30,062
• Composite: 12.26/100
• National rank: #9646
• State rank: #106 of 130 in MS

Livability — Stonewall

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #325
• US rank: #24272

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing C- Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stonewall, MS
• Population (ZIP): 1,619

Population outlook (Clarke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,792 people
• By 2030: 14,085 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 12,619 · -14.7%
• By 2050: 11,225 · -24.1%
• By 2075: 8,511 · -42.5%
• By 2100: 6,820 · -53.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 29% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Clarke

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.2) · D 32.1% · R 67.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.1pp toward R · 2008: -25.1pp · 2024: -35.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.2 2020: R+30.9 2016: R+32.8 2012: R+23.9 2008: R+25.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.13%
• Current HPI: 89.1912
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $79,900 EMR

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $723 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.