1884 Goodnow Flow

Newcomb, NY 12852

$195,000F

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,572 sqft · Built 1991 · SingleFamily · Active · 223 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,040/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax + insurance: −$391
• HOA: −$100
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$218
• Net cashflow: $-692/mo
• Annual: $-8,306/yr
• Cap rate: 2.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.75%
• DSCR: 0.39
• 1% rule: 0.53%
• Cash to close: $54,600

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-692 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $95k (51.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $104k (46.7% below list).
• It's been on market 223 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $95k (51.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (7.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Newcomb Central School District (rural): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #465 of 755 in NY (top 62%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 218 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Essex County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $54k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $195k implies a 290% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 223 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 51% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?