1884 Goodnow Flow · Newcomb, NY 12852

$195,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,572 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 223 Days on market

Built 1991 0.93 ac lot $124/sqft · 58% below area $100/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Cash flow +3.1/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Motivated Seller! Handyman Special! A unique design octagon residence on the Goodnow Flow in the Town of Newcomb, NY. The ceiling of this home is high with a knotty pine wood design. A woodstove is located in the center of the living room for your warmth in the fall or winter. A slider opens to deck which is in need of attention. and overlooks approximately 175' of water frontage. there is one bedrooms on the 1st level and second one can be used on the balcony overlooking the living room. The bathroom has a shower and needs completion. There is no septic tank installed and owner used a compost toilet. There is a drilled well for your supply into the home, The home sits on cement piers. The Goodnow flow area is special in the Adirondacks for hiking on 8,000 acres, fishing, hunting ,snow mobiling or cross country skiing. The annual Association dues are $1200 with a one time set up charge of $730. if you looking for a great recreational retreat for the family this is one location you do not want to miss. Make An Offer!

Key facts

• Goodnow flow area
• Sits on cement piers
• 0.93 acre lot

Tags

• KNOTTY PINE WOOD DESIGN
• WOODSTOVE IN LIVING ROOM
• DRILLED WELL FOR SUPPLY
• SITS ON CEMENT PIERS
• GOODNOW FLOW AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-692 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $95k (51.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $104k (46.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $95k (51.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Newcomb Central School District (rural): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #465 of 755 in NY (top 62%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 218 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (7.2% local appreciation)).
• Essex County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 223 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $54k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $195k implies a 290% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,837 (51.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 223 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 51% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.75%
• DSCR: 0.39
• GRM: 15.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $466,201
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -58.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

7.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $25,952
• Equity at exit: $137,074

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.99×
• Total profit: $108,489
• Equity at exit: $262,159

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12852

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 15.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,040 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$244 /mo · $2,925/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$218
• Net cashflow: $-692

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,917

Max offer price $94,837

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-557	-5% $-625	+0% $-692	+5% $-760	+10% $-827
Rent	-10% $-774	-5% $-733	+0% $-692	+5% $-651	+10% $-610
Rate	-1.0pp $-594	-0.5pp $-643	base $-692	+0.5pp $-743	+1.0pp $-794

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $195,000 Active 223 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $195,000 Active 222 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $195,000 Active 221 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 219 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 218 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 217 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 216 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 214 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $195,000 Active 213 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $195,000 Active 210 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $195,000 Active 209 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,000 Active 208 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $195,000 Active 206 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $195,000 Active 204 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 203 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    price $195,000 Active 202 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $248,500 Active 202 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $248,500 Active 201 DOM
19. 2025-11-10
    listed $248,500 Active 1038-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1038 chars)

    Motivated Seller! Handyman Special! A unique design octagon residence on the Goodnow Flow in the Town of Newcomb, NY. The ceiling of this home is high with a knotty pine wood design. A woodstove is located in the center of the living room for your warmth in the fall or winter. A slider opens to deck which is in need of attention. and overlooks approximately 175' of water frontage. there is one bedrooms on the 1st level and second one can be used on the balcony overlooking the living room. The bathroom has a shower and needs completion. There is no septic tank installed and owner used a compost toilet. There is a drilled well for your supply into the home, The home sits on cement piers. The Goodnow flow area is special in the Adirondacks for hiking on 8,000 acres, fishing, hunting ,snow mobiling or cross country skiing. The annual Association dues are $1200 with a one time set up charge of $730. if you looking for a great recreational retreat for the family this is one location you do not want to miss. Make An Offer!

20. 2019-09-12
    historical
21. 2018-09-12
    listed $112,500
22. 2013-10-07
    soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,484
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$2,925
• − Insurance: −$1,772
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$999
• − Management: −$999
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$12,007
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,882
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,425/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newcomb Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3620730
• Math proficiency: 50% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $48,271
• Composite: 44.64/100
• National rank: #6013
• State rank: #465 of 755 in NY

Livability — Newcomb

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 381

Population outlook (Essex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,758 people
• By 2030: 35,697 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 32,697 · -11.0%
• By 2050: 29,248 · -20.4%
• By 2075: 22,641 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 16,602 · -54.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 14% Romanian 6% Iranian 6%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Essex

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.2% · R 49.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.8pp toward R · 2008: 13.3pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+5.0 2016: R+3.4 2012: D+15.0 2008: D+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.15%
• Current HPI: 341.5907
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+397.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-10 Listed $248,500 Global MLS
• 2019-09-12 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2018-09-12 Listed $112,500 Global MLS
• 2013-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+19.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,619 · +12.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.