8621 Swafford Ave

Leeds, AL 35094

$54,900B-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 792 sqft · Built 1988 · SingleFamily · Active · 621 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,676/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax + insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $998/mo
• Annual: $11,975/yr
• Cap rate: 28.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 77.90%
• DSCR: 4.47
• 1% rule: 3.05%
• Cash to close: $15,372

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $998 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $55k).
• It's been on market 621 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#286 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Leeds City (suburban): math 20% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #51 of 129 in AL (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 158 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $55k implies a 96% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 28.1% vs local median 4.2% in Leeds — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 621 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.