8621 Swafford Ave · Leeds, AL 35094

$54,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 792 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 621 Days on market

Built 1988 10,454 sqft lot $69/sqft · 68% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come and finish the way you like. Won't last long. Convenient to everything.

Key facts

• Convenient location
• 0.24 acre lot
• Built 1988

Tags

• CONVENIENT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $998 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 28.1% vs local median 4.2% in Leeds — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#286 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Leeds City (suburban): math 20% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #51 of 129 in AL (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 158 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 621 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $55k implies a 96% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 621 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 77.90%
• DSCR: 4.47
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $173,790
• List price: $54,900
• Delta: -68.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 77.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.56×
• Total profit: $54,655
• Equity at exit: $8,186

10-year hold

• IRR: 81.5%
• Equity multiple: 9.42×
• Total profit: $129,403
• Equity at exit: $4,747

Cash invested: $15,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35094

• Home prices YoY: -9.7%
• Active inventory: 158
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,676 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$15 /mo · $180/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $998

Break-even live

Break-even rent $412

Max offer price $54,900

Occupancy floor 35%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,725
• Closing costs: $1,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1609 Ray St Leeds, AL	3.0	2.0	1064	$1,200	$1.13	1d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $54,900 Active 621 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $54,900 Active 620 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $54,900 Active 619 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $54,900 Active 618 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $54,900 Active 616 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $54,900 Active 613 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $54,900 Active 612 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $54,900 Active 611 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $54,900 Active 610 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $54,900 Active 607 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $54,900 Active 606 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $54,900 Active 605 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $54,900 Active 604 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $54,900 Active 603 DOM
15. 2024-10-05
    listed $54,900 Active 76-char remark

    Show marketing remark (76 chars)

    Come and finish the way you like. Won't last long. Convenient to everything.

16. 2023-06-30
    soldstatus $28,000 Sold 26-char remark

    Show marketing remark (26 chars)

    Property to be sold as-is.

17. 2023-06-23
    status Pending 26-char remark

    Show marketing remark (26 chars)

    Property to be sold as-is.

18. 2023-06-19
    listed $25,000 Active 26-char remark

    Show marketing remark (26 chars)

    Property to be sold as-is.

19. 2011-09-09
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $180 · $15/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $225 · $19/mo
• Expected delta: +$45/yr (+$4/mo · 24.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,107
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,075
• − Property taxes: −$180
• − Insurance: −$274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,609
• − Management: −$1,609
• − Depreciation: −$1,597
• Taxable income: $11,763
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,823
• After-tax cash flow: $9,152/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Leeds City
• NCES district ID: 0100011
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $50,367
• Composite: 28.21/100
• National rank: #6803
• State rank: #51 of 129 in AL

Livability — Leeds

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #286
• US rank: #18674

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leeds, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 14,854
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 14,854
• Household income: $74,625
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 248.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.99%
• Current HPI: 223.9527
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+449.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2024-10-05 Listed $54,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2023-06-30 Sold (MLS) $28,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2023-06-23 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2023-06-19 Listed $25,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2011-09-09 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $180 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.