8711 W Warbler St

Knik-Fairview, AK 99654

$97,500B-

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,160 sqft · Built 2003 · Other · Active · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,754/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$511
• Tax + insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $742/mo
• Annual: $8,900/yr
• Cap rate: 15.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.60%
• DSCR: 2.45
• 1% rule: 1.80%
• Cash to close: $27,300

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $98k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $742 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $98k).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $674 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dena'Ina Elementary School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #61 of 156 statewide, top 41%, 435 students, 74% FRL); Joe Redington Senior Jr/Sr High School (math 27% / reading 45%, grade F, #27 of 61 statewide, top 43%, 556 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 33% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 496 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 15.4% vs local median 3.3% in Knik-Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.