8711 W Warbler St · Knik-Fairview, AK 99654

$97,500

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,160 sqft · Other public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2003 0.92 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Contractor Special! Unfinished shop house with well in. Gas and Electric on street. House is laid out with 1600 sq. shop space and 10' doors. Upstairs is a 2 bed 2.75 bath house but could easily be adjusted. Lot is in a new construction neighborhood that is fairly built out. House is placed further back on lot and is fairly private with the tree cover as it is. Asbuilt and Well log in docs.

Key facts

• Shop space
• 10 doors
• Well in

Tags

• UNFINISHED SHOP HOUSE
• WELL IN
• GAS AND ELECTRIC ON STREET
• SHOP SPACE
• 10 DOORS
• NEW CONSTRUCTION NEIGHBORHOOD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 4-car garage; No carport
• Utilities: No sewer service
• Home design: Residential property; Not attached to another unit; Built in 2003; Wood frame (2x6) construction
• Construction: Wood Frame - 2x6 construction; Built in 2003; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Asphalt roof; Gravel road access

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 total bathrooms (2 full, 1 three-quarter)
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Workshop

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $98k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $742 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $98k).
• Cap rate 15.4% vs local median 3.3% in Knik-Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dena'Ina Elementary School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #61 of 156 statewide, top 41%, 435 students, 74% FRL); Joe Redington Senior Jr/Sr High School (math 27% / reading 45%, grade F, #27 of 61 statewide, top 43%, 556 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 33% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 496 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $674 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $97,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.60%
• DSCR: 2.45
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $26,370
• Equity at exit: $14,538

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.35×
• Total profit: $64,195
• Equity at exit: $8,430

Cash invested: $27,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99654

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 496
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,754 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$511
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,106/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $742

Break-even live

Break-even rent $815

Max offer price $97,500

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,375
• Closing costs: $2,925
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8439 That Way Unit A Wasilla, AK	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,895	$1.58	23d	1	0.82mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 394-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $97,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,106 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,133 · $94/mo
• Expected delta: +$27/yr (+$2/mo · 2.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,049
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,462
• − Property taxes: −$1,106
• − Insurance: −$488
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,684
• − Management: −$1,684
• − Depreciation: −$2,836
• Taxable income: $7,790
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,870
• After-tax cash flow: $7,030/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Knik-Fairview

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Knik-Fairview, AK
• County: Matanuska Susitna Borough · 100,174 people
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 44,647
• Household income: $97,544
• Rent vs Own: 28.9% rent · 71.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 872.0

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Two or more races 12% Native American 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.68%
• Current HPI: 196.8728
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.04%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+828.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $97,500 AKMLS
• 2026-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-09-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-06-05 Listed $10,500 AKMLS

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,106 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.