61 Laurin St #34

Lake Monticello, VA 22902

$299,000D-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,833 sqft · Built 2025 · Townhouse · Active · 85 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,473/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax + insurance: −$498
• HOA: −$95
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$519
• Net cashflow: $-208/mo
• Annual: $-2,494/yr
• Cap rate: 5.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.98%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $83,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $299k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-208 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (10.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (17.3% below list).
• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $247k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#284 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Fluvanna County Public School District (rural): math 61% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #34 of 131 in VA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 278 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 138 units permitted in Fluvanna County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.6% in Lake Monticello — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.