61 Laurin St #34 · Lake Monticello, VA 22902

$299,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,833 sqft · Townhouse · 85 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 1,742 sqft lot $163/sqft · at area comps Est $299k · at est. $95/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New construction 3-bedroom, 2 Full Bath, 2 Powder Rooms , 1-Car Garage townhome offering quartz countertops, all-new GE appliances, and stylish, modern finishes throughout. Designed for comfort and convenience with low-maintenance living in mind. Anticipated completion June — secure your new home now!

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Modern finishes
• Ge appliances

Tags

• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• GE APPLIANCES
• MODERN FINISHES
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $299k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-208 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (10.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (17.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.6% in Lake Monticello — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#284 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Fluvanna County Public School District (rural): math 61% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #34 of 131 in VA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 278 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 138 units permitted in Fluvanna County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $247,271 (17.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.98%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $298,740
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: 0.09%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
41 Laurin St #29	0.02mi	3/3.0	1,833 (0%)	1mo	$289,990	$158	98
106 Saxon St #106	0.16mi	3/3.0	1,833 (0%)	1mo	$299,990	$164	92
110 Saxon St	0.17mi	3/3.0	1,866 (+2%)	2mo	$299,000	$160	88
103 Oldfield Dr	0.04mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,814 (-1%)	3mo	$299,990	$165	87
47 Laurin St #31	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,800 (-2%)	2mo	$314,990	$175	86
97 Oldfield Dr	0.04mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,814 (-1%)	3mo	$314,035	$173	86
99 Oldfield Dr	0.04mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,800 (-2%)	3mo	$297,490	$165	86
114 Saxon St	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,800 (-2%)	4mo	$312,000	$173	86
130 Saxon St Lot 73	0.09mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,866 (+2%)	1mo	$312,590	$168	85
Lot 66 Saxon St	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,866 (+2%)	4mo	$306,589	$164	84
43 Laurin St Lot 30	0.10mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,866 (+2%)	2mo	$311,990	$167	84
120 Saxon St	0.17mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,866 (+2%)	1mo	$328,830	$176	81

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-62,906
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-76,762
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22902

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 278
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,473 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$374 /mo · $4,485/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$95
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$519
• Net cashflow: $-208

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,736

Max offer price $268,920

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
37 Laurin St Cunningham, VA	4.0	3.5	1800	$2,350	$1.31	13d	1	0.02mi
367 Jefferson Dr Palmyra, VA	2.0	1.5	1434	$1,750	$1.22	43d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $95 · $1,140/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $299,000 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,000 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,000 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,000 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,000 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,000 Active 65 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    price $299,000 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    New construction 3-bedroom, 2 Full Bath, 2 Powder Rooms , 1-Car Garage townhome offering quartz countertops, all-new GE appliances, and stylish, modern finishes throughout. Designed for comfort and convenience with low-maintenance living in mind. Anticipated completion June — secure your new home now!

17. 2026-03-26
    listed $310,990 Active 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    New construction 3-bedroom, 2 Full Bath, 2 Powder Rooms , 1-Car Garage townhome offering quartz countertops, all-new GE appliances, and stylish, modern finishes throughout. Designed for comfort and convenience with low-maintenance living in mind. Anticipated completion June — secure your new home now!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,673
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$4,485
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,374
• − Management: −$2,374
• − HOA: −$1,140
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$7,642
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,834
• After-tax cash flow: $-660/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This new construction townhome is in excellent condition with modern finishes and low-maintenance living in mind. It offers a great value with potential for further improvements to enhance its curb appeal and functionality.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/tenants.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fluvanna County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101380
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,601
• Composite: 57.6/100
• National rank: #1065
• State rank: #34 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lake Monticello

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #284
• US rank: #10173

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Monticello, VA
• County: Albemarle County · 129,350 people
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 23,486
• Household income: $93,463
• Rent vs Own: 46.8% rent · 53.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 894.0

Population outlook (Fluvanna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,237 people
• By 2030: 27,607 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 28,075 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 28,019 · +2.9%
• By 2075: 28,058 · +3.0%
• By 2100: 26,124 · -4.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 6% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fluvanna

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.3) · D 46.4% · R 52.6% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -1.8pp · 2024: -6.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.3 2020: R+4.7 2016: R+9.4 2012: R+6.2 2008: R+1.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -372.57%
• Current HPI: 295.9918
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.47%
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-3.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $299,000 CAAR
• 2026-03-26 Listed $310,990 CAAR