22 Old Trail Rd

Water Mill, NY 11976

$2,100,000A-

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,488 sqft · Built 1973 · SingleFamily · Pending · 156 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $57,733/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$11,013
• Tax + insurance: −$1,409
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$12,124
• Net cashflow: $33,187/mo
• Annual: $398,248/yr
• Cap rate: 25.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 67.73%
• DSCR: 4.01
• 1% rule: 2.75%
• Cash to close: $588,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $2.10M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $33k ($398k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($58k rent vs $2.10M).
• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.85M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.85M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $196k of equity ($15k loan paydown + $181k appreciation (8.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#410 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, commute A-; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, housing F.
• Southampton Union Free School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #293 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Southampton Elementary School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 376 students, 51% FRL); Southampton Intermediate School (math 30% / reading 47%, grade F, #437 of 729 statewide, top 60%, 363 students, 44% FRL); Southampton High School (math 98%, 595 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 30% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+30.1%/yr); 52 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $695k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (8.6% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $588k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$314k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 25.3% vs local median 10.6% in Water Mill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $57,733/mo this rent would consume 384% of the median local household income ($180k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.