158 Pollard Rd

Lincoln, NH 03251

$599,000B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,505 sqft · Built 2008 · SingleFamily · Active · 197 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,796/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,141
• Tax + insurance: −$613
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,637
• Net cashflow: $2,405/mo
• Annual: $28,864/yr
• Cap rate: 11.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.21%
• DSCR: 1.77
• 1% rule: 1.30%
• Cash to close: $167,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $599k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($29k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $599k).
• It's been on market 197 days — a 12% lower offer ($527k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $527k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (2.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#57 in NH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Lincoln-Woodstock School District (rural): math 40% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #140 of 171 in NH (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 487 units permitted in Grafton County in 2024 (127 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grafton County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $245k; list at $599k implies a 144% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $168k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 5.9% in Lincoln — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 197 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.