158 Pollard Rd · Lincoln, NH 03251

$599,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,505 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 197 Days on market

Built 2008 9,583 sqft lot $398/sqft · 46% above area Est $519k · 15% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.1/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.6/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Modern and efficient easy care in-town site. Walk to shopping, Church, town Library, and much more. Newer appliances, Propane gas baseboard heat, Gas Fireplace, and a two car garage makes for a cozy home that also Features Public water and sewer. So close to Loon Mountain and No condo fees. The back yard offers lots of privacy and a small brook boarders the property. Enjoy the covered porch, and large deck with access from the Livingroom and the Primary bedroom suite. One level living offering hardwood flooring, a generous sized laundry room and an attached 400 Square Foot garage adds to the overall Square Footage, and makes for a great retirement home or easy to maintain second home in the White Mountains.

Key facts

• Gas fireplace
• Back yard privacy
• Walk to shopping

Tags

• EASY CARE IN-TOWN SITE
• WALK TO SHOPPING
• PROPANE GAS BASEBOARD HEAT
• GAS FIREPLACE
• PUBLIC WATER AND SEWER
• BACK YARD PRIVACY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $599k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($29k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $599k).
• Recommended offer: $527k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 5.9% in Lincoln — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#57 in NH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Lincoln-Woodstock School District (rural): math 40% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #140 of 171 in NH (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 487 units permitted in Grafton County in 2024 (127 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (2.2% local appreciation)).
• Grafton County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $168k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 197 days — a 12% lower offer ($527k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $245k; list at $599k implies a 144% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $527,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 197 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.21%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $518,923
• List price: $599,000
• Delta: 15.43%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19 Pleasant St	0.23mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,322 (-12%)	18mo	$351,000	$266	49
15 Coolidge St	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (-14%)	16mo	$435,000	$335	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.19% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $200,121
• Equity at exit: $242,621

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.16×
• Total profit: $529,939
• Equity at exit: $354,331

Cash invested: $167,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Hampshire: 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Has just-cause statute; 30-day notice; landlord-leaning vs. neighbors.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 03251

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,796 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,141
• Tax from tax record: −$363 /mo · $4,357/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,637
• Net cashflow: $2,405

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,752

Max offer price $599,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,744	-5% $2,575	+0% $2,405	+5% $2,236	+10% $2,066
Rent	-10% $1,789	-5% $2,097	+0% $2,405	+5% $2,713	+10% $3,021
Rate	-1.0pp $2,707	-0.5pp $2,558	base $2,405	+0.5pp $2,250	+1.0pp $2,092

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $149,750
• Closing costs: $17,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
249 Pollard Rd Lincoln, NH	3.0	2.0	1652	$2,000	$1.21	45d	1	0.45mi
15 Winter Way #4 Lincoln, NH	3.0	2.5	1443	$18,000	$12.47	44d	1	0.83mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $599,000 Active 197 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $599,000 Active 195 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $599,000 Active 194 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $599,000 Active 193 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $599,000 Active 192 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $599,000 Active 190 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $599,000 Active 189 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $599,000 Active 186 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $599,000 Active 185 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $599,000 Active 184 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $599,000 Active 183 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $599,000 Active 180 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    price $599,000 Active 179 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $639,000 Active 179 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $639,000 Active 178 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $639,000 Active 177 DOM
17. 2025-12-05
    listed $639,000 Active 716-char remark

    Show marketing remark (716 chars)

    Modern and efficient easy care in-town site. Walk to shopping, Church, town Library, and much more. Newer appliances, Propane gas baseboard heat, Gas Fireplace, and a two car garage makes for a cozy home that also Features Public water and sewer. So close to Loon Mountain and No condo fees. The back yard offers lots of privacy and a small brook boarders the property. Enjoy the covered porch, and large deck with access from the Livingroom and the Primary bedroom suite. One level living offering hardwood flooring, a generous sized laundry room and an attached 400 Square Foot garage adds to the overall Square Footage, and makes for a great retirement home or easy to maintain second home in the White Mountains.

18. 2025-10-07
    price $639,900
19. 2025-09-02
    price $649,900
20. 2025-08-12
    price $674,900
21. 2025-06-21
    price $699,900
22. 2024-09-25
    price $749,000
23. 2018-12-07
    soldstatus $245,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,357 · $363/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,708 · $726/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,351/yr (+$363/mo · 99.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥86°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $93,557
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,553
• − Property taxes: −$4,357
• − Insurance: −$2,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,485
• − Management: −$7,485
• − Depreciation: −$17,425
• Taxable income: $20,257
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,862
• After-tax cash flow: $24,002/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln-Woodstock School District
• NCES district ID: 3304260
• Math proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,324
• Composite: 36.47/100
• National rank: #9328
• State rank: #140 of 171 in NH

Livability — Lincoln

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #9736

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lincoln, NH
• Population (ZIP): 1,484

Population outlook (Grafton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,798 people
• By 2030: 87,131 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 82,000 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 77,064 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 68,769 · -22.6%
• By 2100: 61,631 · -30.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Asian 12% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 12% Slovak 6% Russian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Chinese 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grafton

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.4% · R 39.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.8pp toward R · 2008: 27.7pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.6 2016: D+19.0 2012: D+23.8 2008: D+27.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.19%
• Current HPI: 531.2395
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+160.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-05 Listed $639,000 PrimeMLS
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $639,900 PrimeMLS
• 2025-09-02 Price Changed $649,900 PrimeMLS
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $674,900 PrimeMLS
• 2025-06-21 Price Changed $699,900 PrimeMLS
• 2024-09-25 Price Changed $749,000 PrimeMLS
• 2018-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $245,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $4,357 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.