1816 West Dr

Murphy, MO 63049

$117,900B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · Built 1972 · Other · Active · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,081/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$618
• Tax + insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $886/mo
• Annual: $10,636/yr
• Cap rate: 15.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.22%
• DSCR: 2.43
• 1% rule: 1.77%
• Cash to close: $33,012

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $118k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $886 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $118k).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $815 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#461 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Northwest R-I (suburban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #128 of 324 in MO (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Brennan Woods Elem. (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #190 of 1,115 statewide, top 19%, 481 students, 31% FRL); Northwest High (math 26% / reading 56%, grade F, #236 of 521 statewide, top 45%, 1,841 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 807 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 15.3% vs local median 3.0% in Murphy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.