1816 West Dr · Murphy, MO 63049

$117,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · Other public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1972 0.27 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath property offering approximately 912 square feet of comfortable living space in High Ridge. The home features an attached 1-car garage, a welcoming front porch perfect for relaxing, and a full basement providing excellent storage or future finish potential. Situated next to a beautiful, adjoined wooded area, this residence offers a peaceful backdrop while remaining close to local conveniences. This is a Fannie Mae HomePath® property. HomePath® is proud to launch our HomePath® Ready Buyer program. Please see the website for details.

Key facts

• Front porch
• Full basement
• Wooded area

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• FULL BASEMENT
• WOODED AREA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Adjoins wooded area

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $118k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $886 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $118k).
• Cap rate 15.3% vs local median 3.0% in Murphy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#461 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Northwest R-I (suburban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #128 of 324 in MO (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Brennan Woods Elem. (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #190 of 1,115 statewide, top 19%, 481 students, 31% FRL); Northwest High (math 26% / reading 56%, grade F, #236 of 521 statewide, top 45%, 1,841 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 807 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $815 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.22%
• DSCR: 2.43
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $37,344
• Equity at exit: $17,579

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.19×
• Total profit: $105,195
• Equity at exit: $10,194

Cash invested: $33,012 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63049

• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,081 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$618
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,083/yr
• Insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $886

Break-even live

Break-even rent $959

Max offer price $117,900

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,475
• Closing costs: $3,537
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
301 Clay Creek Trl Fenton, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1071	$2,081	$1.94	2d	17	0.47mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $117,900 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $117,900 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $117,900 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $117,900 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 586-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $117,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,083 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,144 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: +$61/yr (+$5/mo · 5.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,972
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,604
• − Property taxes: −$1,083
• − Insurance: −$590
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,998
• − Management: −$1,998
• − Depreciation: −$3,430
• Taxable income: $9,270
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,225
• After-tax cash flow: $8,411/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwest R-I
• NCES district ID: 2922890
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $55,998
• Composite: 35.05/100
• National rank: #5034
• State rank: #128 of 324 in MO

Livability — Murphy

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #461
• US rank: #18506

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Murphy, MO
• Population (ZIP): 17,480

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,088 people
• By 2030: 238,365 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 240,156 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 234,651 · -0.2%
• By 2075: 214,569 · -8.7%
• By 2100: 179,697 · -23.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.7) · D 31.0% · R 67.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.3pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -36.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.7 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+35.3 2012: R+12.7 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -222.26%
• Current HPI: 185.2698
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $117,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-09-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-09-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,083 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.