2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
920 sqft ·
Built 1949
· SingleFamily
· Under Contract
· 5 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,114/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$858
Tax + insurance
−$659
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$444
Net cashflow
$153/mo
Annual
$1,837/yr
Cap rate
10.54%
Cash-on-cash
15.18%
DSCR
1.68
1% rule
1.29%
Cash to close
$45,808
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $164k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $153 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $164k).
Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 68/100 on livability (#276 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
Poquoson City Public School District (suburban): math 78% / reading 91% proficiency, ranked #2 of 131 in VA (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Poquoson Elementary (math 81% / reading 92%, grade A+, #47 of 1,108 statewide, top 5%, 444 students, 21% FRL); Poquoson High (math 67% / reading 92%, grade A-, #63 of 319 statewide, top 22%, 690 students, 19% FRL).
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 160 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 133 units permitted in Poquoson city in 2024 (36 in 5+ unit buildings).
Poquoson County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 2.7% in Poquoson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
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· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29