3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,322 sqft ·
Built 1935
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 60 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,506/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$734
Tax + insurance
−$156
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$316
Net cashflow
$300/mo
Annual
$3,600/yr
Cap rate
9.43%
Cash-on-cash
11.22%
DSCR
1.50
1% rule
1.08%
Cash to close
$39,200
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $300 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $3k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.3% local appreciation)).
Location reads 78/100 on livability (#3 in TN, #2,582 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
Hamilton County (urban): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #42 of 139 in TN (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Hixson Elementary (math 24% / reading 20%, grade F, #601 of 952 statewide, top 66%, 402 students, 0% FRL); Orchard Knob Middle (math 5% / reading 6%, grade F, #291 of 333 statewide, top 88%, 334 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 52% district-wide (52 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 14% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hamilton County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,133 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (405 in 5+ unit buildings).
Hamilton County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (1.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.4% in Chattanooga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $1,506/mo this rent would consume 63% of the median local household income ($29k/yr) (locally 406% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29