16-2647 Ainaloa Dr

Ainaloa, HI 96778

$275,000F

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 640 sqft · Built 1983 · Other · Active · 115 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,566/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$274
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $-480/mo
• Annual: $-5,754/yr
• Cap rate: 4.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.47%
• DSCR: 0.67
• 1% rule: 0.57%
• Cash to close: $77,000

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-480 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (30.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (43.1% below list).
• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($250k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $157k (43.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#84 in HI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living D+, schools F.
• Hawaii Department Of Education (suburban): math 32% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #1 of 1 in HI (top 100%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 389 active listings in the ZIP; 982 units permitted in Hawaii County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hawaii County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $114k; list at $275k implies a 141% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.