16-2647 Ainaloa Dr · Ainaloa, HI 96778

$275,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 640 sqft · Other public records · 112 Days on market

Built 1983 0.28 ac lot $430/sqft · 58% above area Est $375k · 27% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home has been a labor of love since it was bought as a fixer-upper, and it shows! Inviting, comfortable, convenient and tastefully decorated, it is ready for new abundant life memories. At first you will be impressed by the beautifully landscaped tropical garden and its many mature fruit trees. Then you will see the extra cute studio cabin, with its own toilet room and cool outside shower. On to the main house, a large screened-in lanai used as a foyer, welcomes you in. You enter the house through the dining area, right next to the open concept kitchen, designed by a chef for functionality. Next you are drawn towards a made-for-Hawaii large and bright screened in living room / lanai, which can be completely closed in by two large barn-type doors. There is an adorable and creative children's room on the left side of the house, adjacent to the commons bathroom. On the other side, there is a second bedroom, conveniently located next to the laundry room area, with its stacked washer / dryer, and close to the kitchen. Upstairs you will find the best room of all, the artsy main bedroom with lots of windows, extra breeze and bright light. Did I mention that this home has character, not your usual cookie cutter. Ainaloa subdivision is located between eclectic Pahoa with its new 40 million dollar shopping center and convenient Keaau boasting multiple shops and restaurants. Approximately 35 minutes driving to Hilo airport. For all the documents and information on Ainaloa Community Association, please visit http://www. ainaloa.org/

Key facts

• Mature fruit trees
• Open concept kitchen
• Tropical garden

Tags

• TROPICAL GARDEN
• MATURE FRUIT TREES
• STUDIO CABIN
• OUTSIDE SHOWER
• SCREENED-IN LANAI
• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-507 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $185k (32.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (44.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $153k (44.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#84 in HI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living D+, schools F.
• Hawaii Department Of Education (suburban): math 32% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #1 of 1 in HI (top 100%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 387 active listings in the ZIP; 982 units permitted in Hawaii County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hawaii County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($250k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $114k; list at $275k implies a 141% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $153,045 (44.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.91%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 15.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $374,540
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -26.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.00×
• Total profit: $-76,963
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.42×
• Total profit: $-108,989
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 37 Tenant-Leaning
• State Hawaii: 37 Tenant-Leaning · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Honolulu has source-of-income protections; warranty of habitability strong.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96778

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 387
• Price-to-rent: 15.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,530 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,916/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $-507

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,173

Max offer price $185,381

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-352	-5% $-429	+0% $-507	+5% $-585	+10% $-663
Rent	-10% $-628	-5% $-568	+0% $-507	+5% $-447	+10% $-386
Rate	-1.0pp $-369	-0.5pp $-437	base $-507	+0.5pp $-579	+1.0pp $-651

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 112 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 111 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 110 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 109 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 107 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 106 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $275,000 Active 104 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 103 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Active 102 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $275,000 Active 101 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $275,000 Active 98 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,000 Active 97 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $275,000 Active 96 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $305,000 Active 95 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $305,000 Active 94 DOM
16. 2026-05-09
    price $305,000 1552-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1552 chars)

    This home has been a labor of love since it was bought as a fixer-upper, and it shows! Inviting, comfortable, convenient and tastefully decorated, it is ready for new abundant life memories. At first you will be impressed by the beautifully landscaped tropical garden and its many mature fruit trees. Then you will see the extra cute studio cabin, with its own toilet room and cool outside shower. On to the main house, a large screened-in lanai used as a foyer, welcomes you in. You enter the house through the dining area, right next to the open concept kitchen, designed by a chef for functionality. Next you are drawn towards a made-for-Hawaii large and bright screened in living room / lanai, which can be completely closed in by two large barn-type doors. There is an adorable and creative children's room on the left side of the house, adjacent to the commons bathroom. On the other side, there is a second bedroom, conveniently located next to the laundry room area, with its stacked washer / dryer, and close to the kitchen. Upstairs you will find the best room of all, the artsy main bedroom with lots of windows, extra breeze and bright light. Did I mention that this home has character, not your usual cookie cutter. Ainaloa subdivision is located between eclectic Pahoa with its new 40 million dollar shopping center and convenient Keaau boasting multiple shops and restaurants. Approximately 35 minutes driving to Hilo airport. For all the documents and information on Ainaloa Community Association, please visit http://www. ainaloa.org/

17. 2026-02-09
    listed $315,000 Active 1552-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1552 chars)

    This home has been a labor of love since it was bought as a fixer-upper, and it shows! Inviting, comfortable, convenient and tastefully decorated, it is ready for new abundant life memories. At first you will be impressed by the beautifully landscaped tropical garden and its many mature fruit trees. Then you will see the extra cute studio cabin, with its own toilet room and cool outside shower. On to the main house, a large screened-in lanai used as a foyer, welcomes you in. You enter the house through the dining area, right next to the open concept kitchen, designed by a chef for functionality. Next you are drawn towards a made-for-Hawaii large and bright screened in living room / lanai, which can be completely closed in by two large barn-type doors. There is an adorable and creative children's room on the left side of the house, adjacent to the commons bathroom. On the other side, there is a second bedroom, conveniently located next to the laundry room area, with its stacked washer / dryer, and close to the kitchen. Upstairs you will find the best room of all, the artsy main bedroom with lots of windows, extra breeze and bright light. Did I mention that this home has character, not your usual cookie cutter. Ainaloa subdivision is located between eclectic Pahoa with its new 40 million dollar shopping center and convenient Keaau boasting multiple shops and restaurants. Approximately 35 minutes driving to Hilo airport. For all the documents and information on Ainaloa Community Association, please visit http://www. ainaloa.org/

18. 2021-02-04
    soldstatus $114,000
19. 2021-01-28
    soldstatus $114,000 Sold 597-char remark

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    Great location! Property borders the forest reserve. Adorable two story cottage features lanai, full kitchen and upstairs bedroom. There is also a 10x10 detached storage room and a greenhouse. Great room is completely screened in. Barn doors inside can separate the living area from the rest of the house or leave open for an open floor plan. There is also a 10x10 detached storage room and a greenhouse. Some inventory comes with the home. SSPP has been paid and there is electric to the home. Very livable home. All roads to the property are paved. All buildings are unpermitted. Cash sale only.

20. 2020-12-02
    listed $125,000 Active 597-char remark

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    Great location! Property borders the forest reserve. Adorable two story cottage features lanai, full kitchen and upstairs bedroom. There is also a 10x10 detached storage room and a greenhouse. Great room is completely screened in. Barn doors inside can separate the living area from the rest of the house or leave open for an open floor plan. There is also a 10x10 detached storage room and a greenhouse. Some inventory comes with the home. SSPP has been paid and there is electric to the home. Very livable home. All roads to the property are paved. All buildings are unpermitted. Cash sale only.

21. 2003-07-21
    soldstatus $58,900
22. 1980-09-01
    soldstatus $6,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast HI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,916 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,916 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,365
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$1,916
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,469
• − Management: −$1,469
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$11,268
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,704
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,383/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawaii Department Of Education
• NCES district ID: 1500030
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,005
• Composite: 37.07/100
• National rank: #4504
• State rank: #1 of 1 in HI

Livability — Ainaloa

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #84
• US rank: #18581

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ainaloa, HI
• Population (ZIP): 14,225

Population outlook (Hawaii County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,733 people
• By 2030: 232,156 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 252,486 · +14.4%
• By 2050: 272,703 · +23.5%
• By 2075: 332,113 · +50.5%
• By 2100: 398,342 · +80.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.82)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Two or more races 30% Hispanic / Latino 15% Pacific Islander 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Russian 7% Italian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 11% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hawaii

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.3) · D 63.0% · R 34.7% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.7pp · 2024: 28.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.3 2020: D+36.2 2016: D+36.6 2012: D+51.3 2008: D+53.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.52%
• Current HPI: 173.8168
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+4983.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $305,000 HI Information Service
• 2026-02-09 Listed $315,000 HI Information Service
• 2021-02-04 Sold (Public Records) $114,000 Public Records
• 2021-01-28 Sold (MLS) $114,000 HI Information Service
• 2020-12-02 Listed $125,000 HI Information Service
• 2003-07-21 Sold (Public Records) $58,900 Public Records
• 1980-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $6,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+39.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,916 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.