785 Oakleaf Plantation Pkwy #1333

Oakleaf Plantation, FL 32065

$169,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,521 sqft · Built 2006 · Condo · Active · 116 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,983/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$294
• HOA: −$468
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $-87/mo
• Annual: $-1,043/yr
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.19%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 1.17%
• Cash to close: $47,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-87 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (9.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $155k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#446 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Oakleaf Village Elementary School (math 63% / reading 67%, grade B+, #514 of 2,144 statewide, top 24%, 1,001 students, 47% FRL); Oakleaf Junior High (math 50% / reading 54%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 1,118 students, 46% FRL); Orange Park High School (math 30% / reading 47%, grade F, #321 of 667 statewide, top 49%, 1,810 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 35% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 209 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.0% in Oakleaf Plantation — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.