785 Oakleaf Plantation Pkwy #1333 · Oakleaf Plantation, FL 32065

$169,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,521 sqft · Condo public records · 116 Days on market

Built 2006 $468/mo HOA · 24% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Super clean unit. This unit is located on the 3rd floor. This home also comes with an oversized detached garage. Owners bathroom has been remodeled and has a walk in shower with new tile and rain shower head. All rooms have ceiling fans. Ceramic Tile Floor throughout the home in all wet areas. Carpeting in all bedrooms and living room. All appliances including washer and dryer stay in this home. The screened in balcony is great for relaxing. Perfect location as it is adjacent to the Oakleaf Community Center which features community pools, basketball courts, baseball fields, gym, amenity center and clubhouse.

Key facts

• $468 HOA
• Built 2006
• Listed 116 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Stellar Properties of North Florida; Monthly association fee of $468; Association fee includes insurance and grounds maintenance; CDD fee applicable; Community amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, playground, tennis courts, basketball court, jogging path, car wash area, trash service, management (full time), and maintained grounds; Sidewalks in community

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking; Guest parking; Parking lot
• Security: Fire sprinkler system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity available; Sewer available; Water available
• Home design: Condominium; Property is attached; Three or more levels; Entry level: 3; Faces northeast; 3-story building
• Construction: Brick, frame and stucco construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Balcony; Covered and screened patio/porch; Front and rear sprinklers

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Ice maker; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen; Elevator; Entrance foyer; Open floor plan; Primary bathroom with shower (no tub); Split bedrooms; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry; Washer and dryer included (washer, dryer); Electric dryer hookup; Washer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-92 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $154k (9.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (9.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.0% in Oakleaf Plantation — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#446 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Oakleaf Village Elementary School (math 63% / reading 67%, grade B+, #514 of 2,144 statewide, top 24%, 1,001 students, 47% FRL); Oakleaf Junior High (math 50% / reading 54%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 1,118 students, 46% FRL); Orange Park High School (math 30% / reading 47%, grade F, #321 of 667 statewide, top 49%, 1,810 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 35% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 209 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,587 (9.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.33%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.73% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-31,626
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-27,707
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32065

• Home prices YoY: -25.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 209
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,976 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$224 /mo · $2,682/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$468
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $-92

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,093

Max offer price $153,587

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $4	-5% $-44	+0% $-92	+5% $-140	+10% $-189
Rent	-10% $-248	-5% $-170	+0% $-92	+5% $-14	+10% $64
Rate	-1.0pp $-7	-0.5pp $-49	base $-92	+0.5pp $-136	+1.0pp $-181

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
785 Oakleaf Plantation Pkwy Orange Park, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1430	$1,800	$1.26	4d	2	0.05mi
785 Oakleaf Plantation Pkwy Orange Park, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1430	$1,800	$1.26	25d	1	0.05mi
607 Crystal Way Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5	1440	$1,725	$1.20	6d	1	0.19mi
3978 Oak Mill Rd Orange Park, FL	2.0	2.5	1109	$1,595	$1.44	25d	1	0.23mi
513 Spanish Oaks Way Orange Park, FL	2.0	2.5	1109	$1,600	$1.44	19d	1	0.24mi
3972 Village View Ln Orange Park, FL	2.0	2.5	1109	$1,695	$1.53	25d	1	0.32mi
3740 Creswick Cir #8 Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5	1824	$2,100	$1.15	23d	1	0.33mi
448 Running Woods St Unit 1 Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5	1333	$1,850	$1.39	25d	1	0.34mi
4220 Plantation Oaks Blvd #2016 Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5	1516	$1,850	$1.22	25d	1	0.47mi
396 Forest Meadow Ln Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1677	$1,826	$1.09	23d	1	0.64mi
575 Oakleaf Plantation Pkwy Orange Park, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1016	$2,300	$2.26	6d	7	0.78mi
575 Oakleaf Plantation Pkwy Orange Park, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1016	$2,300	$2.26	4d	7	0.78mi
575 Oakleaf Plantation Pkwy Orange Park, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	969	$2,300	$2.37	25d	6	0.78mi
319 Hepburn Rd Orange Park, FL	4.0	2.0	2003	$1,976	$0.99	23d	1	0.86mi
4137 Arbor Mill Cir Orange Park, FL	4.0	3.0	2022	$2,250	$1.11	9d	1	0.93mi
670 Grover Ln Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5	1704	$2,100	$1.23	25d	1	0.94mi
630 Glendale Ln Orange Park, FL	4.0	2.0	1798	$2,150	$1.20	19d	1	0.97mi
3938 Bloomfield Ct Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1715	$2,275	$1.33	19d	1	1.21mi
824 Integra Park Dr Middleburg, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1047	$2,258	$2.16	4d	10	1.36mi
3886 Pebble Brooke Cir Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,850	$1.23	25d	1	1.38mi
3750 Silver Bluff Blvd Orange Park, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1862	$1,850	$0.99	4d	2	1.39mi
3899 Pebble Brooke Cir Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,990	$1.32	6d	1	1.41mi
4123 Pebble Brooke Cir Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1334	$2,045	$1.53	4d	1	1.47mi
3631 Silver Bluff Blvd Orange Park, FL	3.0	4.5	2010	$1,600	$0.80	16d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $468 · $5,616/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $169,900 Active 116 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $169,900 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $173,000 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $173,000 Active 111 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $173,000 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $173,000 Active 108 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $173,000 Active 107 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $173,900 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $173,900 Active 103 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $173,900 Active 102 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $173,900 Active 98 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $173,900 Active 97 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $173,900 Active 96 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $173,900 Active 95 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    price $174,000
17. 2026-04-23
    price $174,900
18. 2026-03-13
    price $175,000
19. 2026-02-25
    listed $190,000 Active
20. 2022-04-20
    soldstatus $255,000
21. 2022-04-12
    soldstatus $255,000 Sold 616-char remark

    Show marketing remark (616 chars)

    Super clean unit. This unit is located on the 3rd floor. This home also comes with an oversized detached garage. Owners bathroom has been remodeled and has a walk in shower with new tile and rain shower head. All rooms have ceiling fans. Ceramic Tile Floor throughout the home in all wet areas. Carpeting in all bedrooms and living room. All appliances including washer and dryer stay in this home. The screened in balcony is great for relaxing. Perfect location as it is adjacent to the Oakleaf Community Center which features community pools, basketball courts, baseball fields, gym, amenity center and clubhouse.

22. 2022-03-20
    status Pending 616-char remark

    Show marketing remark (616 chars)

    Super clean unit. This unit is located on the 3rd floor. This home also comes with an oversized detached garage. Owners bathroom has been remodeled and has a walk in shower with new tile and rain shower head. All rooms have ceiling fans. Ceramic Tile Floor throughout the home in all wet areas. Carpeting in all bedrooms and living room. All appliances including washer and dryer stay in this home. The screened in balcony is great for relaxing. Perfect location as it is adjacent to the Oakleaf Community Center which features community pools, basketball courts, baseball fields, gym, amenity center and clubhouse.

23. 2022-03-11
    listed $245,000 Active 616-char remark

    Show marketing remark (616 chars)

    Super clean unit. This unit is located on the 3rd floor. This home also comes with an oversized detached garage. Owners bathroom has been remodeled and has a walk in shower with new tile and rain shower head. All rooms have ceiling fans. Ceramic Tile Floor throughout the home in all wet areas. Carpeting in all bedrooms and living room. All appliances including washer and dryer stay in this home. The screened in balcony is great for relaxing. Perfect location as it is adjacent to the Oakleaf Community Center which features community pools, basketball courts, baseball fields, gym, amenity center and clubhouse.

24. 2010-11-19
    historical 261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (261 chars)

    Move in ready condo in great community of Oakleaf Plantation. Enjoy all amenities such as club pools, playgrounds, joggins paths, tennis courts and more. This lovely unit is on the 3rd floor of a 3 story building with elevator and features a screened balcony.

25. 2010-11-18
    soldstatus $58,900 261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (261 chars)

    Move in ready condo in great community of Oakleaf Plantation. Enjoy all amenities such as club pools, playgrounds, joggins paths, tennis courts and more. This lovely unit is on the 3rd floor of a 3 story building with elevator and features a screened balcony.

26. 2010-10-07
    listed $58,900 261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (261 chars)

    Move in ready condo in great community of Oakleaf Plantation. Enjoy all amenities such as club pools, playgrounds, joggins paths, tennis courts and more. This lovely unit is on the 3rd floor of a 3 story building with elevator and features a screened balcony.

27. 2010-08-31
    historical
28. 2009-08-03
    listed $60,000
29. 2009-04-15
    historical
30. 2009-03-05
    listed $140,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,682 · $224/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,682 · $224/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,711
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$2,682
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,897
• − Management: −$1,897
• − HOA: −$5,616
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$3,690
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$886
• After-tax cash flow: $-222/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Oakleaf Plantation

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #446
• US rank: #8083

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oakleaf Plantation, FL
• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• City population: 40,366
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,578
• Household income: $97,455
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1129.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 15% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.13%
• Current HPI: 276.5987
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.73%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+24.3% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $174,000 realMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $174,900 realMLS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $175,000 realMLS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $190,000 realMLS
• 2022-04-20 Sold (Public Records) $255,000 Public Records
• 2022-04-12 Sold (MLS) $255,000 realMLS
• 2022-03-20 Pending — realMLS
• 2022-03-11 Listed $245,000 realMLS
• 2010-11-19 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2010-11-18 Sold (MLS) $58,900 realMLS
• 2010-10-07 Listed $58,900 realMLS
• 2010-08-31 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2009-08-03 Listed $60,000 realMLS
• 2009-04-15 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2009-03-05 Listed $140,000 realMLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,682 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.