2020 Shirley Ave

Augusta-Richmond County consolidated government (balance), GA 30904

$155,000D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · Built 1941 · SingleFamily · Active · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,263/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax + insurance: −$151
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $34/mo
• Annual: $409/yr
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.94%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $43,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $34 ($409/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (18.5% below list).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $126k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Richmond County (urban): math 12% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #154 of 174 in GA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Wilkinson Gardens Elementary School (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,160 of 1,228 statewide, top 98%, 466 students, 98% FRL); Murphey Middle School (math 0% / reading 6%, grade F, #469 of 470 statewide, top 100%, 635 students, 98% FRL); Josey High School (math 2% / reading 5%, grade F, #413 of 424 statewide, top 99%, 779 students, 98% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 72% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 4% at this address vs 16% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Richmond County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 228 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 561 units permitted in Richmond County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Richmond County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $63k; list at $155k implies a 146% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 5.3% in Augusta-Richmond County consolidated government (balance) — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.