4007 The Fairway

Baiting Hollow, NY 11933

$699,000D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,930 sqft · Built 1999 · Condo · Active · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,534/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,666
• Tax + insurance: −$765
• HOA: −$578
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,162
• Net cashflow: $-637/mo
• Annual: $-7,642/yr
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.90%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $195,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $699k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-637 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $587k (16.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $553k (20.8% below list).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $553k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#953 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Riley Avenue School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,195 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 461 students, 34% FRL); Riverhead Middle School (math 18% / reading 35%, grade F, #594 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 827 students, 57% FRL); Riverhead Senior High School (math 80% / reading 86%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 2,001 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $399k; list at $699k implies a 75% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.