4007 The Fairway · Baiting Hollow, NY 11933

$699,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,930 sqft · Condo public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1999 $578/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious 3-bedroom, 2.5 Bath townhouse beautifully renovated for today’s discriminating buyer. Located in the sound front community of Fox Hill, this unit offers a private oversize stone patio where you can enjoy communing with nature, grilling and dining al fresco. The kitchen features quartz countertops, tile backsplash, and stainless appliances including a Bosch dishwasher. There is also a new LG washing machine and dryer. The master suite is on the first floor and features a spa-like master bath with a soaking tub, separate stall shower, hardwired makeup mirror, and a pocket door. The other bathrooms have been renovated as well. This condo has new central air system, new hot water

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Spa-like master bath
• Stainless appliances

Tags

• PRIVATE OVERSIZE STONE PATIO
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• SPA-LIKE MASTER BATH
• NEW CENTRAL AIR SYSTEM
• NEW HOT WATER HEATER

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association with monthly fee; Monthly association fee includes common area and exterior maintenance, grounds care, pool service, sewer, snow removal, trash and water; Community amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, playground, pool, tennis courts, maintenance of grounds, snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Electric service by PSEG; Shared septic; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Phone connected; Trash collection (private); Water connected
• Home design: Townhouse; Condominium; Two levels; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Not waterfront; No additional parcels

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Pantry; Quartz/Quartzite counters
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom located on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Baseboard heating; Natural gas heating; Smart thermostat
• Interior features: First-floor full bath; Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; Central vacuum; Pantry; Primary bathroom; Master bedroom on main level; Quartz/Quartzite counters; Smart thermostat; Soaking tub; 2 stories; Entry on first floor; Pets allowed; 7 total rooms; Attic with pull-down stairs; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $699k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-637 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $587k (16.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $553k (20.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $553k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#953 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Riley Avenue School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,195 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 461 students, 34% FRL); Riverhead Middle School (math 18% / reading 35%, grade F, #594 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 827 students, 57% FRL); Riverhead Senior High School (math 80% / reading 86%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 2,001 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $399k; list at $699k implies a 75% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $553,430 (20.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.90%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $53,491
• Equity at exit: $324,568

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $235,798
• Equity at exit: $508,331

Cash invested: $195,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11933

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,534 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,666
• Tax from tax record: −$474 /mo · $5,688/yr
• Insurance: −$291
• HOA: −$578
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,162
• Net cashflow: $-637

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,340

Max offer price $586,505

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $174,750
• Closing costs: $20,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
44 Fox Hill Dr Calverton, NY	2.0	2.0	1638	$3,900	$2.38	13d	1	0.17mi
1871 Edwards Ave Calverton, NY	4.0	2.5	2378	$8,000	$3.36	7d	1	0.83mi
52 Summit Dr Calverton, NY	3.0	2.0	2256	$10,000	$4.43	43d	1	0.84mi
1834 Edwards Ave Calverton, NY	3.0	1.5	1344	$7,500	$5.58	24d	1	1.00mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $578 · $6,936/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $699,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $699,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $699,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $699,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 693-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $699,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,688 · $474/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,751 · $729/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,062/yr (+$255/mo · 53.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $66,412
• − Mortgage interest: −$39,155
• − Property taxes: −$5,688
• − Insurance: −$3,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,313
• − Management: −$5,313
• − HOA: −$6,936
• − Depreciation: −$20,335
• Taxable loss: −$19,823
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,758
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,884/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Baiting Hollow

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #953
• US rank: #18639

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baiting Hollow, NY
• Population (ZIP): 6,784

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 8% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.26%
• Current HPI: 397.7148
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+75.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $699,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-08-10 Sold (Public Records) $399,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,688 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.